To: Mr. Whist who wrote (35679 ) 9/8/2000 12:04:41 PM From: Neocon Respond to of 769667 POLL RELEASES September 8, 2000 Presidential Race Remains Close as Post-Labor Day Campaign Begins Gore continues to maintain Democratic convention gains with a slim 47% to 44% lead over Bush by Frank Newport GALLUP NEWS SERVICE PRINCETON, NJ -- The race for president remains tight. New CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll results, based on interviewing conducted Monday through Wednesday of this week (September 4-6), show that Democratic candidate Al Gore leads Republican candidate George W. Bush among likely voters by a slim 47% to 44% margin. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader has 3% of the vote of likely voters. The major change in the race occurred after the Democratic convention, which ended on August 17. Two Gallup polls conducted in late August had Gore and Bush tied at an average of 46% of the vote each. While the current tracking numbers show little substantive change from these August polls, they suggest that the campaign -- at least at this point -- has solidified into a tight race. This marks a significant difference from most polling conducted in the months prior to August, when Bush generally led Gore. Gore and Bush are now receiving roughly equal percentages of the vote from Democrats and Republicans, respectively, but the volatile independents, who are much more likely to swing back and forth in their preferences, now tilt more towards Gore than Bush, by a 42% to 38% margin. The gender gap continues to be pronounced, with Gore beating Bush by an overwhelming 57% to 33% margin among women, while Bush leads by an almost as large 55% to 37% margin among men. Working Class Versus Middle Class Al Gore focused on the workers of America in his convention acceptance speech, but in more recent days, according to press reports, the Democratic candidate has been emphasizing the "middle class" more than the working class. There is a big difference in the current presidential preferences of these two groups. Those Americans who identify themselves as working class (about three out of ten) are strongly for Gore. Those who identify themselves as middle class (about half) are Bush supporters. The upper and upper middle classes are evenly split. Implications for November? There have been frequent assertions that "the candidate who is ahead on Labor Day goes on to win the election." A review of polling data over the last half century points to a more important conclusion: "the margin between candidates on Labor Day can change significantly by Election Day." Thus, the fact that the race is close at this point does not necessarily suggest that it will be close on Election Day. There have been two races that were very close at about this point in the election cycle. In 1960, in an election with a number of similarities to the current one, Richard Nixon, the incumbent vice president, and John F. Kennedy were tied after Labor Day and remained tied all the way up to Election Day. JFK just barely beat Nixon in the popular vote --winning by less than one percentage point. In 1980, polling in August and in early September also showed the race as a dead heat between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. But, by Election Day, Reagan won by ten points. The Debates A good deal of attention has been paid in recent days to candidate squabbling over when, how, and where to hold presidential debates. The new poll suggests that the debates will not be a big factor for the majority of likely voters, 71% of whom say that the debates will not make much difference in their decision on their vote for president. About one out of four say the debates will make a difference. These numbers are similar to the responses to the same question when it was asked in the fall of 1992. There are differences in the perceived importance of the debates by demographic category. Thirty-seven percent of younger women, age 18-49, say that the debates will make a difference to them -- significantly higher than older women or men of all ages. Perhaps not surprisingly, moderates and independents -- less firmly attached to a party or candidate -- are also more likely to say that the debates may matter. And, by a ten-point margin, 27% to 17%, Gore voters are more likely than Bush voters to say that debates will be important. One reason for the stronger reliance on debates among Gore voters may be the perception that he will do better. Forty-six percent of likely voters say that Gore would do better in debates, compared to just 33% who choose Bush. Gore voters are more loyal on this dimension. Some 75% of Gore voters say that Gore will do better. Only 58% of Bush voters say that Bush will do better.gallup.com