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To: Greywolf who wrote (72720)	9/9/2000 11:53:46 AM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 95453

Greywolf; The Grand Illusion. Maybe even The Big Lie? What is it? Two words: "Missing Barrels" I find your Iran post most interesting, most interesting indeed my friend. Have the Iranians inadvertently let the cat out of the bag? Hmmmmmm! First a discussion of the previous "missing barrels" debacle. In short, there were none. They did not show up ANYWHERE! Not in the US stocks, and not in the OECD stocks. It is long since past for those particular missing barrels to have shown up. It is therefore a metaphysical certainty that they did not exist. Was this a scam, a fraud, a hoax, a big lie, or just a Grand Illusion? I expect a combination of the above. This quote from the esteemed and venerable Matt Simmons sheds light on that murky situation of the past: ------------------------------------------------------------ simmonsco-intl.com The IEA’s infamous missing barrels may indicate that OPEC reported production was 1 mmbopd higher than actual production during 1H98. Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine which countries were reporting this phantom production…although Iran is likely partially responsible. ------------------------------------------------------------ In short, Simmons is saying that the "probable cause" for the "missing barrels" was a "mis-statement" of production figures from within OPEC. Since it is a demonstable FACT that there were no "missing barrels" the probability is extremely high that Mr. Simmons has fingered the cause. OPEC mistatements of production. Now Simmons does not use the word lie, so I won't either, still the OPEC dissembling IMO clearly lead to the Grand Illusion perpetuated by the IEA. Now I will turn to an interesting quote in your post. Iranian Quote: ------------------------------------------------------------ "On the current situation of the world oil market, Zanganeh said it is too complicated to allow a sound forcast, but what is a clear fact in the market is a dwindling excess capacity of crude production which stands now at less than 2 million barrels per day. He said non-OPEC oil producing countries are now doing their best to produce 49 million barrels per day and the OPEC production stands at 28.5 million b/d" ------------------------------------------------------------ You will note the Iranian OPEC production figures of 28.5 is nowhere near that stated by the "Saudi contingent" of + 29. Hmmmmmmm. The Iranians are also saying that the Saudi's are "mis-stating" their true production capacity. To what do we owe such a discrepancy? Are Iranian numbers closer to the truth? Is OPEC closer than many think to full capacity? Will Saudi prodcution only make up for those OPEC members who can't even make quotas? There is another conundrum developing. Saudi statements and tanker traffic. The tanker trackers say Saudi production was nowhere near 600k barrels. Probably only half that amount. So what is truth? I suspect the answer lies in this phrase: The struggle for market share. I expect the "hidden agenda" of this current OPEC meeting will be an attempt to convince the world they have plenty of spare capacity. Why? To dissuade Non OPEC sources of production from increasing. They probably wish to delay "big oil" from spending money that will reduce their market share. They also wish to collect more of the rents by convincing consumer nations to reduce taxation on products. I expect this OPEC meeting to be nothing more than a Grand Illusion held in a hall of mirrors. PS. I read today that Western Nations are now down to 56 days of crude supply. Now OPEC wants to tell us that supply and demand are in balance?