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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (16935)	9/11/2000 12:35:26 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

No, didn't hit my entry price. I've learned (hopefully) that while buying into strength is not a problem, selling into weakness is a sure way to get slaughtered, even though you may be right. There is ALWAYS another bounce, and I'm getting pretty good at determining how high bounces should go while staying within the parameters of my negative longer-term view. I set up a slew of orders, including a short on TXN. Many were hit, some weren't. TXN was in the latter group. I did manage to get short JNPR, SCMR, and SUNW at good prices. I pretty much emptied my longs into the bounce and established a significant short position. While I find it extraordinarily difficult to believe that stocks could go down in any serious fashion right before an election, in the face of serious Fed accommodation, the tape is looking extremely heavy. SOX now has a series of three lower highs and will test its 200DSMA this week. COMPX is back below 200DSMA. While traders may ignore that, I view it as a sign that the broader tech tape is in trouble. And probably the most interesting thing to me right now is the sudden bout of airsickness displayed by the networking stocks. The risk of vendor financing seems like it might be sinking in, not to mention the change of fortunes for key customers like Williams. Check out the recent activity in Sycamore. Bubbles can unwind at the most surprising moments, and I've been at DEFCON 4 for some time now, given that all the gigacaps have soared to new heights in financials and tech both. Not only are the New Error types bullish, but even the skeptics are long thanks to the desire to grab some of the Fed's easy money. This is still within the time frame that I'd expect a secondary peak off the March blowoff top. We turned south right at the point that keeps NDX within the confines of a bear flag. I realize it is foolish to think that a trendline test would ACTUALLY FAIL, but one of these days, it is GOING to happen. As credit and consumer demand saturate, I am open to the possibility that this cycle may terminate despite the Fed's largesse, in which case we are all in for the worst case scenario... BC