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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gus who wrote (8696)	9/9/2000 4:14:54 PM
From: Mark Madden	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Here is a weekend report on disk drive pricing from a sample of retail distributor drives. The drives include 330 samples from 5 different distributors. The average sample of desktop disk drive prices remained stable last week. Weekly average price change (weekly rate): Weighted desktop --- down 0.3% Less than 11gb --- down 0.2% 11gb to 21gb --- even 0.0% Greater than 21gb --- down 0.8% Enterprise --- down 0.6% Current Monthly price change (monthly rate): Weighted desktop --- down 2.6% Less than 11gb --- down 1.3% 11gb to 21gb --- down 1.8% Greater than 21gb --- down 3.7% Enterprise --- down 6.8 Current Quarter price change (monthly rate): Weighted desktop --- down 2.3 Less than 11gb --- down 1.6 11gb to 21gb --- down 2.2 Greater than 21gb --- down 2.5 Enterprise --- down 3.3 2nd Calendar Quarter price change (monthly rate): Weighted desktop --- down 3.0% Less than 11gb --- down 3.7% 11gb to 21gb --- down 2.8% Greater than 21gb --- down 2.6% Enterprise --- down 1.7% 1st Calendar Quarter price change (monthly rate): Weighted desktop --- down 1.5% Less than 11gb --- down 1.1% 11gb to 21gb --- down 1.3% Greater than 21gb --- down 2.2% Enterprise --- up 0.1% These reports are beginning to get boring. However, this is probably good for us investors. Last week SSB interviews confirmed that pricing was tough this quarter but better than last quarter. The samples show stable pricing particularly in the capacities that most drives are sold. The enterprise drive samples have been a little weaker from the pricing stand point but the information is more difficult to confirm. IBM does not release much information and Seagate is reluctant to separate any news between the desktop and enterprise business. Also, these reports are simply identifying enterprise drives as drives using a SCSI interface. Many IDE interfaces are now being used for central storage needs in lower cost systems. Regards, Mark

To: Gus who wrote (8696)	9/15/2000 9:25:33 PM
From: Tom Simpson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Gus, Very good and thoughtful of you to post these particular numbers.....beats the hell out of idle speculation...... There are really two questions. One is why each of these institutions might vote one way or the other. The other is, assuming an affirmative vote on the transaction, what might a given institution do with the VRTS shares it receives in place of SEG shares. On the second question I would note that one might expect substantive selling pressure from the "index" funds holding 21% of the stock. Inevitably, whatever index any one of them might be tracking, the result will be some level of overweight with respect to their VRTS holding. One might also expect that from the 20% in the hands of "value" players, although Heaven knows one can't trust such labels to mean much these days. Given that there is a rational basis for selling pressure, what basis might there be for post transaction buying pressure? Beats me....I can't see how you make a case that VRTS has become a better buy because the SEG held shares have been distributed.....apart from the vigorish VRTS directly extracts from the transaction (but that is just a one time event). The growth funds now holding VRTS shares are going to get more of them if they also hold SEG shares. The transaction is not going to change VRTS's market cap, its not going to change VRTS future earnings, its not going to add to its growth prospects, or materially change its book value. Why, oh why, is this such a good deal from an institution's point of view? I suppose there must reasons, but what they are sure escape me :o) Best Regards........Tom