saturday, SEP. 2, 3:09 pm, INSP thread:
"ARBA looks ripe right now, it's making a double top, with luck the rally there has 1 more day left and it's over."
Message 14320687
saturday, SEP. 2, 6:06 pm, INSP thread:
"ARBA in the best case scenario will probably make another shooting star at $ 180 and then dive, there are 1 or 2 days left in its rally, or maybe none.
however ARBA is a very good company, but it won't go higher than $ 180 because it's already at $ 40 BILLION market cap which is totally insane, no matter how good Ariba is.
wait for the shooting star candlestick and for RSI to begin pointing DOWN, and then short."
Message 14321091
sunday, SEP. 3, 2:06 am
"beware
stockcharts.com;
Message 14321941
monday, SEP. 4, 2:59 PM
"not yet, i'm waiting patiently for the blowoff top and shooting star at the previous high."
Message 14325083
* tuesday, SEP. 5, 12:44 AM *
"take a look at this chart, at the previous blowoff top at $ 183 there is a beautiful shooting star candlestick big and obvious as a house.
it's going to happen again, making the double top i am predicting and you don't see yet.
askresearch.com;
wednesday, SEP. 6, 3:48 PM
"my ARBA short at $ 170 is looking good.
the shooting star i wanted happened yesterday, i hope all of you took notice."
Message 14337811
after publicly having said all this in advance, and spending these past few days watching the stock on level II like a hunter watches his prey, you really think i failed to nail the round number $ 170 when i was predicting a shooting star the day before??
that's as much as i can say in a public forum, you don't expect me to post my account activity report, do you??
the object of these stock discussion forums is IMHO to discuss and share our different point of views, offer some tips, things one has learnt and make some good calls every now and then.
that's what i expect from other S.I. posters too.
i've given my arguments based 70% in technical analysis and a few thoughts about valuation.
some may find that useful, some may not.
check what Colin Thorpe had to say regarding my timely INSP call ("ranting") at $ 138 beginning march 3.
hey i could be dead wrong, and ARBA miraculously rebounds at the 20-dma, and makes another attempt at surpassing the all-time high, and goes to $ 80 billion market cap just as it announces the opening of a b2b marketplace for condoms in China and a 5-1 split.
hey anything can happen in this crazy casino market! that's why you always have to use stops.
i've been dead wrong before, for example with EGRP, a stock and company i absolutely LOVE, in which i have blind faith (price/sales is just 3.5 by the way), and yet however, it's been a stinking dog since mid 99, and i saw huge gains built since going long in late 98 EVAPORATE just like that.
everyone who followed my advice on that one wants me DEAD.
ha ha
but then again, you see, having blind faith in it, i wasn't considering charts at all with EGRP (now that the veil was taken from my eyes i see that it spent all 99 in a deadly descending triangle that fortunately has already ended with a beautiful and very obvious DOUBLE BOTTOM), and this market is running on charts *alone* it seems.
(i'm long EGRP forever though, so i don't care).
big mistake, not to follow charts, institutions do, believe me.
why did the Nasdaq fall this week for example? small double top too, but mainly *OVERBOUGHT RSI*, go to Sharpcharts, AskResearch, whatever, and check the RSI indicator on the Nasdaq composite, 70+, and then the VIX at 19.
you think the downgrade to INTC the other day came out of thin air? sometimes analysts do it on purpose, INTC goes down, the whole index goes down, and their bearish bets are profitable.
a few weeks later, they just change their tune, and everything is rosy again.
wash, rinse, repeat operation over and over and over.
Soros calls it "the alchemy of finance".
here's a 1-month ARBA chart:
askresearch.com
you can see the perfect shooting star on september 5 i was predicting a couple of days before, the RSI indicator beginning to point LOWER, the lower black candlestick the next day which confirms the peak and bearish "evening star" formation, and the high opening ($ 166.25) and very negative close ($ 153.75) with another shooting star this friday that confirms the weakness and the beginning of the downtrend.
what's next? a break of the 20-dma trendline (putting an end to the uptrend that started with the gap up at $ 65 in early june) where institutional sell-stops will be automatically triggered and then the "inevitable apocalyptic fast dive into the ocean from 50,000 feet" (-> i'm purposely exagerating here to provoke the desired panicky effect).
here's a 30-minute chart
siliconinvestor.com
then you say:
"ARBA only traded 170+ on Sept 5th and you claimed no short position Sept 4th".
yes, that's correct, so?? where do you see the contradiction??
___
"What are the odds of shorting $2 and change from a 1 hour intraday high on a single day? You claim to "publicly" post this but ARBA only traded 170+ on Sept 5th and you claimed no short position Sept 4th . No such "public" post exist." |
