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To: GST who wrote (108171)	9/9/2000 3:48:58 PM
From: Eric Wells	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

GST - first of all, it's great to see you posting after what appeared to be a long absence (I don't post much myself these days - as I've been too busy with my business). But I read posts from time to time. In your recent posts, you have been expressing great concern about the recent increase in the price of oil, as well the lack of refining capacity - and claiming that these two factors will lead to a hard landing. And in some of your posts, you appear to be actively encouraging others to "sell" - I can only presume you mean to "sell all stocks" and hold cash. You may be correct. We may see Nasdaq 3000 before the year is over. But, then again, you may be wrong. I'm always alarmed when I see people post what I view as "strong" recommendations or "extreme" predictions about the future. While I have been investing in the market for only about 10 years, my limited experience has shown me that very few have successfully predicted the future - and those that have usually do so with the aid of a good amount of luck. Therefore, when you claim that we are in for a hard landing and that everyone should sell, I'm inclined to view such exclamations as having as much credence as 1000 dollar price target predictions for stocks such as QCOM or QXLC by over-zealous analysts. As an investor from 1990 through 1998, I adhered to a strategy of buy-and-hold. Unfortunately, in late 1998, I abandoned that strategy for the most part and started trying to trade - not daytrading - but doing several trades each week. I ended up spending a lot of time for a much lower return. Two months ago, I went back to a buy-and-hold strategy - and in those two months, my return has been pretty good. In fact, this past week, while the NASDAQ declined some 6 or 7 percent, my portfolio lost about half a percent. The sky may be falling - the economy may land hard. The market has already crashed once this year - at least I call what happened in April to the NASDAQ a "crash" (others may not). It may crash again this year. And I may lose half my portfolio - or I may only lose 10 or 20 percent. But should I sell everything right now because of uncertainty of the future price of oil? GST, we don't even know who you are - we don't know your name, your profession, what real knowledge and expertise you bring. Yet, you come on this thread and tell us that increasing oil prices and lack of refining capacity are going to bring down the economy. What data do you have to support this? Do you have some expertise and knowledge of the refining industry? The only real proof I've seen on this thread that there might be a problem with refining capacity was some allusions to the issue in a Financial Times article posted by another participant - yet the article was severely short on data. If the market crashes within the next month, everyone on this thread might consider you a guru - someone who successfully plugged the right factors into the right economic equation to successfully predict the future. Or we might consider you just "lucky" - lucky at having posted the right prediction at the right time. But if the market doesn't crash - if it stays flat, or declines a little, or even goes up - what will we say about your predictions and your encouraging everyone to sell? We might consider it an over-reaction, an overly cautious approach on your part. Don't you think it might be a bit more prudent of you to do one of the following: 1. Either tone down your warnings a bit and alert people to the possibility that an oil shock might lead to a recession and that investors on this thread may wish to adjust their portfolios according to their investment style and preferences (long term buy-and-holders may wish to do nothing and ride out the storm). 2. Or, provide us with some real data about refining capacity that suggests that we will indeed be hit with a shock that will bring down the economy. I agree with you that if there is a problem here, it is refining capacity. I think OPEC will vote to increase production this weekend - the Saudis have the capacity to do so. And if an OPEC production increase does not bring down the price of crude, the US has a whole lot of oil in it's strategic petroleum reserve that I'm sure our beloved (I use that adjective facetiously) president will be more than willing to release to calm the economy to help further the prospects of the VP that is currently seeking the highest office in November's election. So, availability of oil does not appear to be the major problem. Refining capacity might be, however. But all we seem to have on the subject of refining capacity so far is speculation - and little fact. It would be great if you or someone else could post data or links to data on this thread to show that this is a real problem. If I saw the data, then when you claim the sky is falling, I might believe you - and I might view you as "the economic guru that accurately predicted the 2000 crash". Otherwise, your claims echo of hubris similar to that which spurred Thomas Bock's $1000 pre-split price target of QXLC (mind you, that clever prediction came on April 6, just before the NASDAQ crash) - or that which caused Irving Fisher to claim that stocks had reached a permanent plateau in 1929. Consider my post here not as a harsh critique, but as a challenge to you to provide more data to support your position. I wouldn't have taken the time to write this post if I didn't respect your opinions and your views. Thanks, -Eric

To: GST who wrote (108171)	9/10/2000 10:48:08 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 164684

See next.

To: GST who wrote (108171)	9/10/2000 10:48:34 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 164684

If there is a hard landing somewhere, I doubt it will be here. Overseas economies have suffered more than we have from US rate hikes. If some currency crisis threatens world economic stability US money will flow immediately.