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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: saukriver who wrote (31313)	9/9/2000 11:53:43 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

question JDSU as a long-term hold. Your view of JDSU is interesting. I consider it my best shot at major gains the next two years. I don't quarrel with your position of where it would be when Tecbaby is 18, but, as a major King in supplying components to the fiber/optical business, I expect very good news for the next several years. It is up 43% this year, and, when it digests SDLI, which I expect to go though, a couple more doubles are in the works, IMO. SDLI is selling at a 17% discount to the merger ratio right now, and I have 20% of my portfolio in it. SDLI is doing so well on its own that I am not afraid of the downside risk if the merger falls though. The way technology is moving, I would be surprised if Tecbaby's Portfolio had any of the stocks Tecboy listed in it 18 years from now. Not with Tecboy managing it!

To: saukriver who wrote (31313)	9/9/2000 6:08:56 PM
From: DownSouth	Respond to of 54805

saukriver, I am in the minority, perhaps, but I consider NTAP to be the Gorilla of NAS. I have made that case several times, so I won't belabor the point except to say that NTAP has a disruptive technology with its WAFL software that is protected by IPR. The bottom line on WAFL's DI nature is the fact that it dis-integrates the file system from the UNIX and Windows OS. And it does so to the benefit of performance, reliability, simplicity and total cost of ownership. NTAP is to NAS what QCOM is to CDMA. Yes, others have "NAS" products, but their NAS products are no simpler nor more reliable than the direct attached storage servers they have been selling all along. In fact, there is no technical difference between their NAS products and their servers with storage directly attached to those servers. That goes across the boards, including SUNW, HWP, EMC, and all the smaller NAS companies. What these competitors have done is preconfigure their server/storage configurations with a network interface and call it "network attached storage". NTAP's upcoming Virtual Interface (VI) offerings will create a new evolution of their disruptive innovation. VI will remove the TCP/IP bottleneck of an ethernet network for file operations. It will also sit atop Fibre Channel (FC, GigabyeEthernet (GbE) and InfiniBand (IB). GbE and IB will make the distinction between NAS and FC-based storage area network topologies meaningless. VI will make NTAP's filers perform extremely well. NTAP will use VI to architect clusters of filers operating as a virtual single system with redundancy, scalability, performance, and reliablility that cannot be duplicated with conventional architectures. It is NTAP's control of its proprietary OS and proprietary file system that allows it to architect with VI. It will be difficult for their competitors to do that. They have no control of the OS nor the file systems on which they are built. Thus, NTAP's gorillaness will, imo, overtake its competitors and NTAP will be recognized as the Gorilla of enterprise storage. Saukriver, WAFL has already "taken root" in the NAS market. VI will be the fertilizer that makes it grow into the remaining parts of the storage market. ds@gottadosomethingwhileUGAgetsitsassbeatbySC.edu

To: saukriver who wrote (31313)	9/10/2000 11:48:41 AM
From: BDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

<<My concern on JDSU is that at some point the optical network gets built to the point of where it reasonably can be deployed. So, I am not sure about it long-term. Perhaps someone who understands better the optical market can address the risk that the market has a finite amount of gear that can reasonably be deployed.>> I don't know that I understand the market better but I certainly hope your reasoning about the optical market being finite is wrong because JDSU is my largest holding and I also hold large positions in GLW and SDLI. A lot of people already own computers and many aren't that impressed with the need to upgrade to a newer, faster CPU but Intel isn't closing their doors. A lot of computers are now networked but Cisco still seems to be in business. I am hoping that not only is the optical market bigger and more dynamic in the future than we can now imagine but also that the management of these companies is good enough to continue to grow the companies even after all the long lines are in place. In fact the more I read about the complexities of the metro and "last mile" problems the more I believe that the long lines will prove to be the cheap and easy part of the network build out. In the short run the market seems to be worried about the finances of some of the carriers and that may affect the suppliers of fiber and components but I don't think it changes the long term prospects for the optical market. A pull back in prices may offer a good entry point for anyone with a long term view point. lightreading.com SEPTEMBER 08, 2000 Telecom Scare Shakes Market Have public markets soured on service providers? Does this herald a coming slowdown in networking sales, as carriers are forced to halt their network buildouts for lack of funds? These are questions haunting optical investors this week, in the wake of several disconcerting events, including a financial restructuring () by Qwest Communications Corp. (NYSE:Q); an IPO withdrawal by Broadview Networks Holdings Inc. (see Broadview Pulls IPO ); and news that the alleged bankruptcy of Iaxis Ltd. had forced Ciena Corp. (Nasdaq: CIEN) to log a multimillion-dollar write-off (see Ciena Spooks the Market ). Indeed, Wall Street ran scared on Friday, fleeing anything that had to do with telecommunications equipment. Large equipment providers such as Ciena, Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO), Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE/TSE: NT), Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: LU), and Juniper Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: JNPR) each lost between 2 percent and 8 percent of its value. Juniper was the hardest hit, dropping 7.5 percent, or 16 points, to $199 in late afternoon trading. But analysts warn investors not to be too quick to jump to conclusions. "There's an overall perception that carriers are having problems getting financing. But that's not completely true," says Brian Etten, research associate at investment firm WR Hambrecht & Co.. >>>>> ()Qwest just acquired US West. They sold off Qwest's long distance business to focus on high growth areas such as wireless. The two companies overlap geographically so Qwest lays off several thousand workers after the merger. Is this a surprise? Does this constitute a restructuring forced by financial difficulties or an expected outcome after a merger?