Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: justone who wrote (8410)	9/9/2000 11:52:55 AM
From: justone	Respond to of 12823

I discovered the below statistics collected by Nielsen//NetRatings Global Internet Trends service between April and June 2000. cyberatlas.internet.com The article is titled "Home Remains the Place to Go Online" cyberatlas.internet.com /big_picture/geographics/article/0,,5911_454971,00.html The report notes we are approaching 300 million people on line, and more people use the internet at home than at work. I found it most interesting that in Finland, where wireless phones are beginning to replace, not supplement, wire phones, they have lower rates of internet access. Since wireless is growing faster than wireline, this may mean that WAP and or satellite/wireless access to the home may have a larger market than I thought. Satellite broadcast video is growing much fast than cable as well. Subscriber growth in the US (Source: FCC 1999) had 66.7 million subscribers as of June 1999, up ~ 2% from 1998, while there were 14.2 million satellite subscribers, up 26% from 1998. The last mile grows more confusing.

To: justone who wrote (8410)	9/9/2000 12:27:08 PM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 12823

justone- Thanks for your comments. Fantastic. Some more digital TV conversation as the ultimate Last Mile access solution/device. "They (couch potatoes who don't use the internet today) are also not likely to be high bandwidth users." I understand exactly what you are saying, but once digital-TV rolls out to the 80% of households figure you quote(cable and satellite- which is accurate), IMO it won't be an option. It'll be something that creates value for the MSO so either a sub takes it, or it is given to them. I know it's not as simple as that, but it would take so long to go over the evolution I see. But let's say Internet users is literally DOUBLED here in the US. And consider how very, very few have broadband today. Well double the subs, and then add broadband-- Then you have a major mess in all three portions of the telecommunications infrastructure. TV is big and once the players(both SPs and Advertisers) start seeing money being made in all services digital TV can bring, it may really take off. ________________ "The real source of bandwidth upgrade will likely be, in my opinion, created by Video on Demand (VOD) services. This will certainly create a bottleneck, not at the backbone, but between the location of the video jukebox and the cable head, as at 8pm. every night people try to download movies." Exactly. And by i-TV or digital TV, that's what I also include. And yes the access portion will be swamped and IMHO, so will the networks to get the content to the headends of both DBS uplink sites and MSOs headends. Otherwise, how will the SPs get the content? I'm guessing it won't be via UPS or FedEx. So that was part of my theory about digital TV rollouts swamping the backbone portion of the telecommunications infrastructure. But at this point, it's just a theory. I have some other reasons, but this was the main one. The other reason depends upon whether or not the SPs are going to allow their subs out of the, "Walled Garden." In other words, unleash couch potatoes to the WWW or keep them boxed into an Intranet. __________________ "My guess is that 2) will easily win if HDTV takes off, then 98 million homes, when faced with buying a DVD player, a CD player, game-stations, and HDTV appliances, will opt for a PC that can do it all for under $500." Interesting comments. I might agree with what you envision in a future timeframe of about 5 years or more. But in the meantime, for a here and now rollout, it's going to be limited to what SFA or MOT top end STB can deliver. And IMHO, that is probably putting a lot of the interactive functions in the headend. I really think that the STB is already breaking the usability bar for too many users. My fiancee won't even turn on the TV by herself now since there are three remotes it takes to watch TV. Most of my friends have 4 or 5 remotes(DVD, stereo, VCR, TV, STB). And their wives won't touch the things. So IMHO, the SPs are realizing this and will put the added services i-TV can bring in the headend? But OTOH, I would have to agree with you. Especially when I read about Microsoft's X-box and the other gaming consoles coming out. And of course the news out of TiVo and Replay, etc., etc. It's a very TOUGH one to figure out. All I know is what is rolling out today is fairly simple. So that leads me to believe the MSOs may want to do the extras via the headend. It's pretty much a wild guess on my part. I'm really confused about the STB role. __________________ "I'd be interested if anyone has any other semiconductor stock ideas that might be undervalued today." Thanks for your ideas. MOT is growing their broadband business by leaps and bounds. Given their problems in the handset market, and subsequent market cap haircut, they don't seem that overvalued to me. I don't know much about the other chip companies you mention, but I'll check them out. You may want to add C-Cube(sym:CUBE) to your watch list. I did an extensive rollup at: Message 14262386 Thanks for the digital TV conversation. If you have any other thoughts, please post. I'm still just lurking around trying to pick up ideas myself. -MikeM(From Florida) PS Thanks Carolyn. I'll look at IATV more closely too.

To: justone who wrote (8410)	9/11/2000 2:26:15 AM
From: axial	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

Hi, Justone (and Mike)- WRT the STB/STB semiconductor question and stock plays, I suggest Philips. They are putting themselves into an enviable position; I supect that by 2003 they will be far and away the dominant player, both in North America and Europe, where DTV will be OFDM-based. Look also at HAVi, in concert with Sony, Sharp, Thomson Multimedia. Panasonic, Grundig, Hitachi and others: this is an IEEE 1394/'wireless 1394' overlay for personal entertainment. You might want to check out their involvement with Liberate/Microsoft, not to mention Tivo. HAVi is developing a strong groundswell; many, including TI are preparing chipsets, but Philips is well-positioned with last year's acquisition of VLSI. The HAVi product will accept to either broadcast, wireless, or network input, and will bridge to Jini and UPnP, Linux or Windows. Regards, Jim