Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (28086)	9/9/2000 5:34:25 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 68390

Harry: We can sell off more but a difference between now and March is the market internals (more stocks on buy than sell signals) have really improved vs. March where is was a narrower and narrower group. I am ready to sell though. On CMRC this gets scary so take the story with a grain of salt. Also I've been in for around 3 weeks in 50 range but I did average up on Friday. 1) APNT shareholder vote is this week (I think 13th but I did confirm this prior to entering a position). 2) B2B conference the following week (from the cmrc web site). 3) SAP relationship is just starting to bear fruit (at least 4 exchanges pending as indicated by a cmrc person at an investor conference last week). Now we know there will be a lot of exchanges but the ones to survive will have the strong sponsorship. SAP should be pretty good on this end. Similar to IBM with ARBA. AT the least the news will keep the stock in the spotlight. 4) The auto exchange is to be up by the end of Sept. Now we know this can be pushed back but its always nice to have the big 3 and Daimer on board. Other risks here are FTC review and 3 co heads (always a recipe for disaster). 5) Revenues are growing very well. 6) Market cap @ $11B is low in comparison to ARBA. While ARBA can come down I expect CMRC to move higher. 7) Stock was under accumulation all last week. Even on Wednesday the MM dropped it 3 pts in the last 15 minutes. So unless the market gets worse I would not expect $62 again. If it breaks I'll be out somewhere between $63 and $57. 8) My initial target with a double close of $74 is $92 area (I didn't print an expanded chart so I can't provide any other resistances at the moment) and with the news and earnings I can see doubling from here (this can be in less than a month). 9) Now I'll keep evaluating it along the way. If we have a B2B mania type market and it posts good revenue #'s I can see $160 by the year end cc. This is a dream at this point but look at what YHOO did before it came back to earth. Also many of the internets which didn't have a prayer of generating revenues tripled and quadrupled last year so this one has a chance. Tim the speculator vs. investor and I think this is my first internet buy throughout the years. WSTL - remember the old Amati days. Anyway yes ALA is #1 & they just landed a nice piece with BT where WSTL is tied in with Fitjsu as a supplier. My problem with ALA is are they able to tie in all the US acquisitions? XYLN, Newbridge, it seems like they've acquired some of the smaller or breaking networkers. Plus French labor rules make me avoid the stock. PS - I wish someone would buy them out & for more than my $16+ cost <gg>. It makes sense now versus 2 to 3 years when the dsl market starts to slow and competition will kill the companies margins (not that the margins are too good right now). I vote CMNT or EFNT on a share for share exchange. The semis were taken down pretty good at the end of the week but SFAM is a non event (they are not a AMAT, NVLS, TER, KLAC) and KLIC's cc was not bad except they indicated next quarter will be flat with this record quarter AND they indicated thier customers are ordering (this from reading the thread vs. listening but Ian and a few others are ok to read. Of course KLIC does matter but its not as bad as the press is leading everyone to believe (of course fundamentals don't matter and street perception does so I wouldn't be buying KLIC). ZOOX also is not 1st tier and they are losing busines to competitors vs. it being a market issue (SFAM is probably being hammered by AMAT). I think ZOOX provides a good opportunity in EMLX and QLGC (now while QLGC can run to $140 I'm gun shy on this q with the ancr acquisition which is a big positive just maybe not this quarter in earnings). Have a good weekend. Tim