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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan G who wrote (113633)	9/9/2000 8:31:39 PM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

From Yahoo thread on NSM....".some signiifcant facts from the cc: 1) Only 15% of NSM business is considered commodity business. The rest is specialized order business. That makes them relatively immune from an "oversupply" of chips condition (but more vulnerable to specific downturns with their customers.) I consider this a positive but I think it is totally ignored by the St and NSM will be lumped with the other semi's if a downturn arrives. 2) Last year there were something like 280-290 mm handsets manufactured. This year there will be 420-430 mm. Next year, it is projected that their will be 650 mm. (I am not sure I remembered these numbers accurately, but they are in the cc.) 3) Resellers are running 42% year over year. NSM considers this an important indicator for its future business worldwide. There has been no let up in the reseller business. 4) NSM is designed into a number of products which means as long as those products sell, NSM is the supplier of choice until and unless they design a new product and design NSM out of it. 5) NSM's i/o, panel and video solutions are continuing to make significant headway with PC manufacturers. Much of this is new business which is building on itself. 6) Thin client will be the future way large corp's upgrade and manage their computers. Win200 has a network management software feature called TSE which will allow for upgrade and management of thinclients. This is VERY positive for NSM with 85% of that market. This means the next replacement cycle at corps with huge numbers of computers will, in many cases be thin client. 7) NSM curently has apprx $1 in every handset. With the 3g and trimode phones, they hope to increase their designed in silicon to $15. 8) A down note from the cc was the lack of significant info on the gigphy effort. I think that they need more sales/development effort in this arena. The comment was gigphy will not sell until networks and servers adopt the 1 gig standard. I am hoping that the use of thin clients will prompt corps to want faster network access and that will accelerate gigphy efforts. 9) Financially NSM is loaded with cash. Net was 840mm. 10) The 2nd qtr is already in the bag. Based on current backlog orders, and just average turns, the growth will be 6-8% qtr over qtr again, and the margin will increase slightly by .5 basis. That is the "conservative" estimate. We are looking at $.82 to $.83. On an annualized basis, we are probably near $3.20 - $3.30 per share. With the stock price at 45 we are at a forward PE of 14 for a company with a sales growth rate of 30%. Has this PE with this sales growth substantially discounted a silicon cycle slowdown? I guess that is the question. But I sure would rather own NSM with this Sales/PE ratio than ADI or MXIM with their sales/pe ratio in a slowed down market. OTH, if everyone's worry doesn't come to fruition, NSM might be a good candidate to hold."

To: Susan G who wrote (113633)	9/9/2000 10:00:31 PM
From: Roger Schelling	Respond to of 120523

What an interesting discussion this evening. I guess it just lends itself to more response. This is the way I see it also. I know I speak for many other traders in the room when I say, I've never traded better! Or learned more in a short period of time. But the room is definitely not for totally inexperienced traders, you need to at least have some experience in trading or you will make the same mistakes in the room as you will on your own. Susan With this addition, WE are Pristine oriented now and it fits perfectly with US training ourselves, with some(lotsa) help. Searching the WEB for consistent winners? Good Luck. Search yourself. Are we trading for a living or trading and posting to be heros? Ho humm Roger(midland)