To: Len Hynes who wrote (556 ) 9/10/2000 12:12:26 PM From: rajaggs Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 601 Len, these two quotations from the Stone article only serve to underline the gravity and profit potential of a situation which has failed to really catch the attention of the public, YET. >> Roger Plank, CFO of Apache Corporation [APA], "Relative to any point in the last 20 years, I have never seen supply and demand as tight as it is today." He forecasts a potential price surge to $40-$50 a barrel.<< This situation has the potential, unless the US government does something to reduce demand and not for just a few months, to bring about a major catastrophe like the Depression. What is needed is a major attitude revision.! If they would stop under-taxing use of a finite resource and force those who buy thirsty SUVs for trips to work or the supermarket, to pool or use transit, then a start would be made. The Euros are taxing the use of gasoline heavily and may be pissed off that they are now having to pay more than ever, because the US will not tax gasoline as they should. >> While looking for a laggard oil stock, one standout is USX Marathon [MRO]. It has underperformed nearly throughout the entire 1999-2000 oil rally. Until very recently, MRO shares traded LOWER than they did when crude oil traded for under $12 a barrel. Technically, MRO appears poised for a very strong breakout if you study its weekly moving averages relative to the stock's 200-day moving average. For the first time since May 1998, the monthly MACD has crossed into positive territory. << What a buy.!! A few will prosper whilst others pay the toll for abuse of this precious resource. Hopefully we will be among the former.! The really basic fundamentals are thus: We use oil products daily and in essence could not do without them. We know there is an increasing reserve in the ground BUT that the reserve is increasing at a slower rate. We know that demand is increasing AND at an increasing rate. We should be able to figure out, that somewhere down the line the total demand line will cross the total reserves line. End of game.! This seemingly critical situation will be repeated several times in the next 20 - 30 years, each time in increasingly critical mode, before the public and their short-tenure politicians get the message. What appears to be a dire circumstance now, will look like only a faint early warning sign, 20 years from now. This will be an interesting, hopefully profitable, winter.