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To: Elmer who wrote (109583)	9/10/2000 9:09:11 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: it took 3 1/2 years to build the last one. If AMD started another one tomorrow it would still miss the .13u production window It's taken Intel 7 years (and counting) to ship its 64 bit chip. Do you expect it to take 7 more years before they ship their second one? The expansion at Dresden, which was planned for at the time of the building of the first FAB, is ready to go in terms of land, infrastructure, and permits. If the goal is additional .13/.10 capacity, then less then 18 months is my guess as the time between a decision and finished wafers coming out of the plant. AMD may be (once again) using a surprise strategy. Multiple .13 copper FABs are under construction in Taiwan right now. Is it possible that a better road for AMD at this point in time is to contract for space in some of those FABs? 3 years ago, when the conventional wisdom was that there was an indefiniet FAB space surplus and most companies were scaling back construction plans, AMD risked its future building a FAB that many thought was unnecessary. Now, everybody is building $2 Billion .13 300mm copper FABs. (I think 3 have broken ground in Taiwan, so far. Does that check with your recollection?) So AMD may once again buck conventional wisdom, this time by contracting for FAB space instead of building it. The opposite of what they did last time. But if AMD does plan to do that, why register to sell more stock? Personally, I'd love to see AMD start on both the new Austin FAB and the Dresden expansion tomorrow. But the quality of strategic planning at AMD has been so good in recent memory, that I wouldn't question whatever conclusion they come to. Dan