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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (11139)	9/10/2000 1:19:28 AM
From: peter michaelson	Respond to of 78714

Jim: Great questions.... One thing I have noticed participating on the Anthony@Pacific site and around on SI is that some of the very best traders have a chameleon like personality. They change to reflect the fashions of the day. They are committed only to the philosophy that works, not the one that is 'right'. I'm the type that has worn blue jeans since I was a kid, and probably always will. Sometimes I look great, other times way out of sync. I suspect you are the same. I can go so far as to apply my fixed mode of thinking to different areas, as changing markets warrant. These days, that is clearly in the shorting arena. Peter

To: James Clarke who wrote (11139)	9/10/2000 7:52:26 AM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78714

IMHO this is similar to my own warped sense of thinking where as soon as I buy an undervalued stock i want mr market to recognize that too and immediately bring up to to a correct valuation. we can only buy undervalued stocks and hope that the market recognizes it soon after we purchase the stocks but we cannot control that. Sometimes it happens quickly sometimes not. Last year the adjustment I am sure was slowed down by the tech bubble in the latter part of the year. I fell for it too and unfortunately sold a very undervalued energy situation that was stagnant. it subsequently outperformed all my other holdings. The good news is that you are up 20% this year and I am sure that you will continue to do well but I wonder how much of that gain is due to amazon's recent performence.<g>.

To: James Clarke who wrote (11139)	9/10/2000 4:02:40 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Respond to of 78714

James, my wife brought home a photo album from her trip to my 39 year old daughter. Who is that slim guy, could it be me? Believe me it is hard to remember what kind of investment strategies I employed in the good old days. However, I believe that value should be interpreted as good return for the risk involved and that the strategy of outwitting other investors on the basis of balance sheet analysis will have only mixed results at the best. Let me share two examples of other strategies. 1) Arbitrage. I wish I could convince others to visit Mike's site. Only Paul Senior and I seem to post and then not frequently. I have played the utility mergers quite sucessfully this year and currently hold cg,fpc and mcn. For non utility I like bocb. All of these situations are near maturity so the yields may not support new positions. I wish I could get more interest on the arbitrage thread. 2) Covered calls. This strategy gives you downside protection and an opportunity for good yields. I like leaps against severely depressed stocks. About two years ago I initiated positions in nsm,crus,coms,neta,esst, and madgf when these tech darlings were severly depressed. If todays prices hold until Jan 2001 I will have triples on all positions except madgf. As a current example I took out position last month on lor by buying stock at 6 3/8 and selling Jan 2003 leaps(strike 12 1/2) at 2 3/4. This is a triple if lor above 12 1/2 by Jan 2003. With all the option threads in SI none wish to discuss this type of strategy because there is too much emphasis on get rich quick ideas. Those are my thoughts and lets hope we can get more of a dialog on alternative value strategies. Good luck.

To: James Clarke who wrote (11139)	9/11/2000 11:35:26 AM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78714

here is the address of the perkins interview: thestreet.com Enjoy!

To: James Clarke who wrote (11139)	9/11/2000 11:45:01 AM
From: Freedom Fighter	Respond to of 78714

James, My view is that the current environment is still an aberration of some sort. I think some of it has to do with indexing becoming so popular and the rest has to do with individuals that don't know very much trading for their own accounts in large numbers. I think the "buy any dip" mentality is still very much in place among the latter. What I've been noticing is that the "public" will buy almost any serious dip in large cap blue chip stocks. (S&P500 members) That will usually drive the price back up 20%, 30% or more quickly regardless of the merits or fundamentals that caused the initial decline. Then, over time, if the original decline was appropriate, they sink it again. Lucent is a good example of that, but there are many others. One might say that "ignorance is bliss" for a lot of traders that are playing the bounce. On the flip side, small caps are getting little if any bounce regardless of how well the company is doing. So I think if you've been focusing on "real" good values among large caps you've been doing better than is typically the case based on my experience from the late 80s and early 90s. YOu've been getting the bounce almost immediately. If you've been focusing on smaller illiquid companies you are having a tougher time than is typically the case. That's my observation and the way my own portfolio is acting. Wayne

To: James Clarke who wrote (11139)	9/11/2000 4:13:26 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78714

James, can you shed any light on this? Allou Health and Beauty (alu) has excellent balance sheet numbers and appears to be a strong value candidate. However they went to institutional investors for a terrible financing package. Do these small companies find it impossible to offer a secondary with enticing warrants attached or some similar source of financing that favors their current stockholders? biz.yahoo.com

To: James Clarke who wrote (11139)	9/11/2000 9:52:29 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78714

James, This year is so far going fine for me. Thanks to ANF, a flip of GTSI, pharmas in 401(k) and furtunate flip out of WCOM. I also sold LHO that I held since last year and MAT (for loss). I also had one of long-time ago mistake LEAPs expire worthless. Otherwise, I am happy with my strategy and performance, even though TSG and SYMC are currently under water, and BRK is more-or-less flat. Last year I had great 401(k) results due to surging company tech stock. (Which I liquidated at the top - but I also got stock options at the top, so there's no big consolation). My portfolio results were so-so, but not horrible. Had some luck with NKE. My worst year was 1998, when I got caught on the wrong side of CIEN-TLAB arbitrage and with worthless semi-equip calls. Ouch! So I can't really answer your question, especially since this year our portfolios significantly overlap. I can say that non-pharma part of the 401(k) is very flat though. Jurgis