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To: kas1 who wrote (4334)9/10/2000 11:25:15 AM
From: Mehitabel  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10934
 
*Recall that PEG is extremely misleading for higher growth rates, where the relationship between growth rate and future value becomes far from linear.*

Kas, I would be very interested in hearing what valuation measure you believe to be appropriate for extremely high growth stocks...

do you use the discounted future earnings model and the "comparable stocks" method many analysts do

or do you just use an evaluation of the prospects for future growth and pay what it costs to buy once you have confidence in the future growth?

John Train once said (paraphrase) "How do I invest? Carefully, it's like crossing a river, feeling for stones". That about summarizes how it *feels*, but doesn't tell you much about how to do it :)

I would genuinely like to hear what you and other posters have to say on the subject of *how* you go about groping for good investments. I invested heavily in NTAP all last year, and increased my investment in August/Septemeber on the basis of a Merrill-Lynch report that said NAS/NTAP were "entering the tornado".

I still can't figure out quite how I got that smart :) and would like to be able to do that again at least once. You know, just to prove I really can?

Interested in any comments/discourses you have on the process of choosing investments.

regards



To: kas1 who wrote (4334)9/10/2000 7:00:08 PM
From: Apollo  Respond to of 10934
 
Appreciate your thoughts, kas1.

the PEG may be flawed, as it seems all measures seem to be.
But I suspect the PEG is better than raw P/E.

I'm reading "Irrational Exuberance" now. I believe in this New Economy stuff, but there is no doubt that valuations are astronomical, relative to the market the past 130 years, or so.

thanx again,
Apollo