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Strategies & Market Trends : New US Economy Policy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Arthur Tang who wrote (244)9/22/2000 1:29:39 PM
From: Arthur Tang  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 435
 
Top down economists again projected soft landing predicting 3.5% annual growth. Wall street worries about earnings shortfalls. Main street don't care about nothing and will stay away from the voting booth.

What will really happen?

Jobs are steady, while profitability due to productivity continue to improve. Some company such as INTEL shot themselves in the foot. Bad planning maybe; but bad execution in production of new products definitely. Still cash profits will be impressive even it is only half of previous projection. So, third quarter may end up only 5.0-5.5% GDP growth. and the last quarter may end up at 8+% growth. Soft landing, then perhaps hard landing, only happens to large banks caught by sudden change of overnight discount rate. Chase got shotgun marriage with JP Morgan. and is still looking to divest investments in the tune of $1-2 billion. To pay Greenspan for the latest surcharge no less.

The rest of the country just yawns. This new economy is Jobs and higher paying jobs. The new internet economy is paperless efficiency exercise. They will be here more and more. Don't look down at it; because the shortage of labor never will happen with direct sales model perfected.

Thank god, Greenspan only got the curse to hurt his former employer.