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To: Post_Patrol who wrote (72803)	9/10/2000 8:40:31 AM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 95453

Post_Patrol Only 1.5 mbpd increase? I was hoping that with all the bluster SA has been demonstrating they would push for 2 million and induce a nice selloff (Great Buying Opportunity). Im not sure how long traders would be fooled, maybe just long enough for shorts to cover and longs pick up some bargains. Wont be long before 3rd quarters earnings are out

To: Post_Patrol who wrote (72803)	9/10/2000 9:19:30 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Yes indeed Postal, let the OPEC Follies begin! :o} Replete with bad reporting, mega spin doctoring, position squaring, horse trading, and bs coming out the wazoooooo! What a hoot! OK so is this 1.5 mbpd a quota adjustment from 25 mbpd? Everybody knows OPEC is producing 28-29 mbpd already. Maybe. Duhhhh. Everybody also knows only Saudi can MAYBE squeak out that much ADDITIONAL crude. OK so if it's the Saudi's then what do you make of this statement from al Naimi: ------------------------------------------------------------ slb.com VIENNA, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi on Saturday said OPEC's biggest producer would not risk hard-won cooperation within the cartel by trying to pump output for fellow members that have no spare capacity. ------------------------------------------------------------ OOoooooooooo so maybe it isn't 1.5 after all? No! Really? This is so transparent now it's not even funny. The Saudi's will say anything to keep Clinton's hands off the SPR. So what is truth? What is illusion? Does anyone really believe this hoooey anymore? Tomorrow there will be a different story, then another, and another, and another. Frankly Postal that 1.5 number is merely a negotiating position that has defined the upper limit in this horse trading bazaar that is the OPEC meeting. Lower limit is 500 upper is 1.5. The Saudi's will pick a number that they think will knock down prices another 3 bucks or so, then the spin will reverse, this is becoming too predictable. I say max downside for the OSX is 125. Who knows if it's in a straight line or not? In the end most market participants know: 1. Nobody wants the sour crude so it sits in SA for a while. 2. Tankers can't deliver it even if it was wanted. 3. The rest of OPEC is totally tapped out and can't even make current quotas. 4. Cold weather is one month and half months away and the US alone needs about 40 million barrels of HO. It'll be interesting to see how many dolts actually believe that 1.5 number is anything close to reality.