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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (148)	9/10/2000 1:51:01 PM
From: DepyDog	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

I couldn't agree more kid. Space exploration is so excitin to me and wish they would really put some extraordinary efforts to go BOLDLY forth. I remember watchin them step on to the Moon for the first time...was chillingly thrillin and a bit scary when Armstrong stepped out. Will nevah forget it. best regards, Depy

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (148)	9/10/2000 2:32:15 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

I hope you're right, but I'm afraid you're wrong. The theory of Punctuated Equilibrium, first developed to explain evolution, is useful to explain change in a lot of complex systems. It says that the rate of change and progress is not steady or linear. Rather, the usual situation is stasis, stagnation, or even regression. Long periods of no change are punctuated by brief exciting times of massive change/chaos/progress. Space exploration had one of those times in the 1960s, (and a smaller one in the 1930s, when the Germans were developing V-2s to bomb London). The rest of the century, we've been in stasis. And the most likely future is for that stasis to continue indefinitely. The problem with the Space Station is that it is supplied by the Shuttle. The Shuttle is a Model A, not a Model T. When Ford decided to build a cheap reliable machine for transportation, his first attempt was the Model A. Being a hard-headed businessman, rather than a government employee, he quickly decided the Model A wasn't good enough, so he stopped making them, and kept on trying new ideas, until finally he had the model T. He got rich, and changed the world. NASA is pretending they have a Model T, when they don't. The basic problem in space is the lack of a reliable cheap way to get from the Earth's surface to Low Earth orbit (on the way to the stars, the first 100 miles are the hardest, by far). Building the Space Station before we have that, is putting the cart before the horse. This can all be traced to a huge mistake NASA made when planning the Apollo missions: building a big quick throw-away system, which didn't lead anywhere. Or, maybe you can blame it on Punctuated Equilibrium. So, the investment lesson is: short Globalstar; go long Qualcom and Biogen.