Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (108226)	9/10/2000 9:36:14 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

GST, Two items do not seem to be reconciled. 1- oil price is high. I suppose that is because there is more demand than ready supply. 2- you claim refineries are operating at capacity. Therefore the next statement has to be that they have no use for more oil. An extra barrel of oil is not worth even 5c to them. So if someone miraculously can increase Mexico's output a little, or Canada's or the UK or Norway, the the oil price will collapse again. But the oil price will not collapse even if output is increased by 1 million brl/day. And the reason is that refineries can in fact process it, and that is why they will pay $30 or $27 or whatever price settles at. You keep telling me and Eric that we are not understanding your point. I do read what you say, but there is a contradiction between the two claims. There is another issue which is that stock prices do not behave as might be dictated by logic. Otherwise Amazon would have been in the low single digits by now. But the main point that the apocalypse crowd misses is that the US is occupying and ruling the largest oil producing countries, and holding hostage the second largest oil reserve in the world. Payments made to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Iraq are just ledger entries in New York banks. And if those people make noises about getting something for their deposits, the US ships them some obsolete military trinkets and charges them billions. That is why your doom and gloom scenario is so unlikely.

To: GST who wrote (108226)	9/11/2000 10:17:53 AM
From: Eric Wells	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

My message is not just "sell" although I think it would be prudent to be cautious right now GST - that's great to hear. In two of your posts from last week, you clearly stated "Sell" as though you were encouraging others to move everything to cash. Energy prices at their current levels are the problem I agree - current high energy prices are a problem. How much of a problem they are, however, is the issue. Aside from interest rates and money supply, energy prices are absolutely fundamental in our economy I agree. Once again, it would be great if you could provide some data to support the statements you've made regarding limited refining capacity. My view, after the research I've done over the past couple of days, is that there is indeed limited refining capacity at the moment - but the limits are due to: 1. Recent lack of investment in refineries 2. Recent environmental regulations limiting the type of crude that can be refined In addition to the above, high energy prices are also being impacted by limited tanker capacity and high taxes. All of these factors may have an impact in the short term. However, long term impact is uncertain. If you have additional data and knowledge that you can lend here, it would be great if you could share it with the rest of us. My original motivation for questioning you and inquiring about your credentials was due to your coming on the thread and encouraging people to sell. Perhaps you were just trying to sound an alarm - to get people to listen up and pay attention to oil prices. However, I would question anyone who would come on this thread making broad recommendations to others about the movement of assets. Thanks, -Eric