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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kaka who wrote (160582)	9/11/2000 10:18:30 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176388

Re: ......Q3 should come in at 8.437b, and Q4 at 9.533b. Hello kakamongus. That's why the stock is in the doghouse right now. To even the most casual analyst, this by all accounts looks to be unattainable. The disappointing part is that Dell can string together two fantastic quarters, the best in their history in absolute terms, and still miss. It seems to me that the street is holding Dell mgmt to 30% or better not 28.6% or 29.3% or almost 30% or close enough to 30% etc. Kumar's exact words were "30% is not even remotely realistic". Yet 28-29% is realistic IMO and I think Kumar might agree. Isn't 28-29% close enough to 30% to qualify for a company this size? Apparently not in this instance. The analyst community already seems to have more credibility than Dell management and if they fall just short of the 30% 'promise', mgmt will have a long way to go to rebuild any credibility regarding forward guidance. There seems to be a very high risk that this is indeed what will occur and I believe it's already factored into the stock price. And the backpedal may have already begun. Today was the first time I've seen a report where MD appears to be posturing more cautiously on that 30% number. Friday, IR stated things were on track. There seems to be a slight disconnect. Either way, a downward revision in revenue growth for 2001 is imminent. If Q3 is not strong enough to give them a chance to make the 30% number, I expect it then. If not, then the Q4 end of year CC at the latest. My sense is they should set expectations in the low 20% range for revenue with accelerating earnings growth possible. Had they set the target at 25% earlier this year, the stock would have gotten beat up a little worse and there would have been a lot of whining and complaining about how 'over' it was for Dell. But the stock would be behaving much differently right now with the expectations of an upside surprise. To be fair, hindsight is 20/20. At the time, I believe mgmt thought they were setting the bar low enough. The analyst community, myself and everyone included thought they had set it low enough so they could actually exceed it. Now it appears they may not even make it. That just wont do wonders for your stock price. Ooooops. Next year will probably be much better for the stock. Other than that, the business seems to be doing just fine. MEATHEAD