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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17226)	9/11/2000 12:39:49 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Bear fodder from unknown: Long Term View: OK, now for the seriously esoteric: There is a 13 year stock market cycle that began with the big bull origin from the lows in 1949, the panic in 1962, the low in the market in October 1974, and of course October 1987. Get a calculator if you are having difficulty reaching the next step. A 13-year cycle could be a coincidence, and when you deal in such large time periods, you must give an 8-month margin of error (the 1962 indicated a low in 75, not 74). Therefore, we need a dose of realism: what could cause such violent selloff? You need something out of the ordinary; here are a few strains big enough to spark a global shake-up necessary to spike risk premiums: 1. Asia: Taiwan is down 25% from this year's peak, which just matched 1997's previous high, and is moving lower. (Remember 1997 in US equities: a high in July, recovery in September, and a vicious bear move in October.) Additionally, the Nikkei is flirting with a very serious level of 16,000, and bank loan problems that won't go away. 2. Europe: with such little Euro demand, it may take a real downdraft before clearing the deck. European Central Bank meets on Thursday, so there could be some excess volatility this week. 3. US: Thursday's Retail Sales and PPI, and Friday's CPI could continue the worry that the US is truly slowing down (even in the face of a revived stock market and M3 growing at 10%). We have not had bad numbers--recently, they have been so bad they are off the charts. No one is hitting the panic button because you really need to smooth these numbers over three months, and we have had such a fantastic run, no one gives credence to the fact that we are truly slowing down. Oracle could save the day on Thursday when its earnings come out, but remember how some weakness under the surface in their numbers last quarter caused some selling (add George Lane's departure into the rumor mill, and there is the potential for a good move either way in ORCL). DAK