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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (8435)	9/12/2000 8:12:35 AM
From: justone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Elmatdor: You make several good points, and in particular I like the one about keeping your management system intact by upgrading instead of replacing. That is VERY important to providers. If the network proceeds to expand by upgrading the end equipment, instead of replacing it in the core, this means we can keep Sonet/ATM semi stocks: PCMS, TXCC, VTSS, and the like, for a while. But what does this mean to the fiber components companies: Lucent, Nortel, Alacet, JDS Uniphase, Corning, and ADC? (the six largest, in order). I have an anecdote. A friend works for a small candy manufacturing (200 people) company in New England. He was hired as head of the IT department, in a month he noted that they were being charged over $0.10 per minute! by a large carrier. He figured he needed ~4 data and 5 voice channels, and good rates for long distance. He found several alternate carriers, one of whom offered to install a fiber connection for free. I understand that the local ILEC had to install it for almost nothing, so the CLEC didn't care much about instllation, but they had to have the proper termination equipment at both ends. The point is, if small low tech companies are getting fiber, then the Metro may roll out. My only problem is I don't understand the business case for this CLEC? Are the betting that in the future candy manufacturing will be IP based. That production workers will stay at home and video conference to their workstations? Or is fiber now just as low cost as fractional T1 and you might as well sow it now, and reap what you can in the future. The fiber will carry voice, but will it be VOIP, VOATM, or SONET or what? If they are putting fiber in what happens to HDSL, or DSL, or cable as SOHO providers? Lacking an understanding of the fiber business case, I guess that the answer will be based on whichever technology can be managed by the service provider instead of the company (companies love to outsource functions that are not part of the core business). ATM to the enterprise? justone opinion

To: elmatador who wrote (8435)	9/13/2000 5:37:22 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

"Have we reached a consensus that: SDH/SONET will be in the networks for a while?" elmatador- Nice comments on real life metro networks upgrade decisions. As you know, I'm of the mind legacy is king in incumbent land. So it fits right in with my thinking and investing philosophy. The spending stats below tend to support that SONET/SDH is alive and well. I'm assuming European carriers SDH rings have just as much a legacy footprint as does SONET in North America. Kind of makes one think TLAB(SONET) and ALA(SDH) have some nice business(DCS) in front of them for awhile. The metro-WDM idea is still a little confusing to me in the way it relates to SONET/SDH rings. I'm guessing the marketecture out of the metro-WDM players is for real and WDM can co-exist with SONET/SDH. In your example I think you are saying, when traffic overload dictates, pull a ring off the SONET network and run DWM over it. Is this what you are saying? And then there's a lot of marketecture out of a few new-age metro optical players that say, "Mesh is the way to go and our products can live with SONET too." This is a totally different architecture they are proposing, right? Nothing to do with what the metro-WDM players are proposing. Ken- If you are reading this, what kind of numbers does Nortel generate out of their optical presence in the MAN? I even forget what product it is that sells so well...Optera maybe? I just don't have a good grasp on the MAN yet, hence my confusing post. It's becoming slightly clearer to me as I break the new proposed ideas by the start-ups into independent categories. -MikeM(From Florida) ****************************** Report Forecasts Metro Winners and Losers** Want to know which optical technology will dominate metro networks for the foreseeable future? One word: Sonet. That’s the conclusion of a report due out next month from Pioneer Consulting. Called “Optical Edge Networks: Market Opportunities for Integrated Optical Network Solutions in Metro Networks,” it’s the first to divide the players in the labyrinthine metro market into easily understood categories and then assign a dollar value to each. By doing so, it sheds some light on which of the optical networking solutions now being pitched for the metro market, and which of the vendors backing them, are likely to succeed -- and which will stumble. The report’s key conclusion: For all the hype over next-generation optical metro technology, it's products that are based on Sonet-– a 20-year-old veteran of carrier nets –- that will continue to dominate the metro scene for the foreseeable future. “Sonet is not going away, particularly for major carriers. Conceding the traditional Sonet market to the incumbents such as Fujitsu, Lucent, and Nortel simply concedes them the wealth,” says Scott Clavenna, principal analyst at Pioneer. Pioneer forecasts that service providers will spend $6.09 billion this year on “traditional” Sonet and DWDM metro solutions. Of that total, more than 98 percent of the money will be spent on Sonet gear, not DWDM, according to the report. “The metro DWDM market is nothing right now,” says Clavenna. In contrast, carriers will spend less than half that total- $2.59 billion -- on “emerging” metro technologies.