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Gold/Mining/Energy : Oil & Gas Price Economics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Adams who wrote (258)	9/11/2000 10:13:24 PM
From: rajaggs	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 350

Hi Mark, I have that Energy Information Agency? website bookmarked because it has an enormous amount of information in it and it is well formatted for downloading or printing. In fact I had already printed off some of its tables (pdf format) and Table 11 you may find to be of particular interest. It lays out all of the US oil and gas derived energy demand and supply but I think that it may be a factor in providing some misleading information. The CIA ebsite gives the annual growth in US population as 0.91% per annum. The "eia" webiste gives the anticipated growth in oil products as 0.63% annualised. Surely any country with the population gain, growing individual and family wealth of the US, plus growing ownership of heavier, less efficient vehicles, combined with no current building of non-fossil fuelled (nuclear or hydro-electric) power supply cannot have a growth of oil consumption of less than the population growth. That would mean the individual usage of oil in the USA is going to decrease. It sure as hell doesn't look like that to me. They also show that they anticipate the cost of oil is only going to increase by 0.8% per year over the next 20 years, leading to crude oil at $28.04/bbl in 2020. They must be smoking our top-grade BC Bud on that one, because it's higher than that already and does not look like dropping in the near future.!! I realise that these demand, supply and pricing figures are very hard to extrapolate over long periods of time and that probably no other country is doing it any better but I believe that such naive extrapolations may be a part of the problem and why US politicans are failing to come to grips with reducing their dependence on foreign oil. I've printed off the Kyoto Macro' pages but it'll take me a few days to digest them. Some of the graphs attached seem to represent that the US is actually prepared to meet the Kyoto restrictions but I think that is impossible and Canada has already admitted that they have failed to meet them or the Montreal Protocol on carbon reductions. 'jaggs