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To: slacker711 who wrote (31454)	9/11/2000 5:47:31 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

Slacker, << EMC can manage to get an accurate estimate on a monthly basis, since most countries/operators dont publish the numbers that often >> As re GSM, they have a direct feed from the carriers, long before anything published. Sophisticated software, sophisticated database, knowledge of whats happenning everywhere that affects subscriber numbers. Best in the world. Outside of GSM, I'm not sure. This is the first year they have publically posted the numbers for competetive technologies, although they have always tracked them, and forecast them. << If the Koreans would just cooperate by dropping the subsidy ban, we would have a guaranteed great 4th quarter.... >> Have faith. - Eric -

To: slacker711 who wrote (31454)	9/14/2000 11:01:56 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Slacker, Re: Worldwide Mobile Wireless Subscriber Growth Official through Q2 2000 UWCC reported official figures today. All numbers are in: tdma-edge.org << I don't know how EMC can manage to get an accurate estimate on a monthly basis >> These were the estimated actual numbers that EMC posted in early July: GSM: 271 to 331 subs = + 18.1% YTD Growth CDMA: 50 to 67.1 subs = + 34.2% YTD Growth TDMA: 35.1 to 47.8 subs = + 36.2% YTD Growth I've adjusted the America's count through Q2 here: North America Subscribers: TDMA = 24.6 million CDMA = 23.1 million * Good news for CDMA in NA - Narrowed the gap from 22 million TDMA v. 18.5 million CDMA through Q1 2000 * CDMA is about to become the dominant digital wireless technology in North America, finally overcoming TDMA's earlier time to market advantage. Latin America: TDMA = 20.5 million CDMA = 8.7 million * CDMA is holding it's own in LA but not overtaking TDMA which had a huge head start. Although EMC was 2 million high on their CDMA actual estimate, they were only .7 million high on TDMA. Pretty close. Based on this I think we can take their recently posted subscriber numbers through August conclusion as being pretty accurate as well. ================================ MOBILE WIRELESS SUBSCRIBER STATS ================================ Through end August 2000 Total Worldwide Subscribers (millions) 536.8 = digital (excludes ESMR) 76.8 = analog 612.8 = total mobile wireless (excludes ESMR) CDMA = 11.75% of all (up) CDMA = 13.41% of digital (down) ================================ GSM: 271 to 361.7 subs = + 33.5.1% YTD Growth CDMA: 50 to 72.0 subs = + 40 % YTD Growth TDMA: 35.1 to 54.3 subs = + 54.7% YTD Growth ================================ Looking for a strong CDMA finish. Still a horse race for "Fastest Growing Technology" in 2000. Go Stewball! (CDMA) - Eric -