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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (108299)9/11/2000 9:29:32 PM
From: Eric Wells  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
GST has been on this thread and others for a long time - a couple of years.

Sarmad - I'm well aware of this. I've actually been on the AMZN thread for a year and a half now myself, and I've actually had a number of what I consider productive exchanges with GST.

I was a bit surprised, however, when GST posted a couple of messages last week that came off, in my view, as very confident encouragements to sell. From the way GST writes, it appears that he/she (while you stated yesterday that GST is a man, I don't recall seeing a post of his/hers where he/she explicitly stated he/she was a man - but for your benefit, I will stick to the pronoun "he") - anyway, it appears that GST is an economist or has a strong grounding in economics. Is GST a Nobel Laureate economist retired in Hawaii - or is he a sophomore business major with Econ 101 under his belt. Or does GST have no formal background in economics at all? To you it may make no difference. To me, it does make it difference - I would give GST's posts more consideration were he a Nobel Laureate economist (not that that necessarily means much as Myron Scholes and Robert Merton demonstrated at LTCM). But if I discovered that GST was a trust-fund, beach-bum surfer who divides his time between posting on SI and taking road trips to Asia - well, I would follow his advice religiously. Seriously, I might want to question him about how he found time to read up on refining capacity in between catching waves.

If anything, the exchange we've witnessed over the past few days has sparked a bit of intrigue. Who exactly is GST? The dreamer in me wants to think that he is someone quite famous who does not wish to disclose his identity - I'm trying to think of famous people who live in Hawaii - Don Ho?

All kidding aside. I like to think that I respect everyone's right to remain anonymous here. And I hope my recent posts did not come off as placing undue pressure on GST to reveal his identity. However, my respect for someone's anonymity does not necessarily preclude me from inquiring about their identity depending on the circumstance. I'm going to question anyone who makes strong recommendations to buy or sell anything - I've done it on several occasions on this board and others, and I don't see why I should stop now. Personally, I feel very uncomfortable telling other people what to do with their money. If I was privy to specific information that convinced me beyond any shadow of a doubt that the market was going take a major dive, then I would like to think I would share such information with the people here. However, I would also like to think that I would share the source of such information, as well as any supporting data to back up my claims - otherwise, I would not expect people to take me too seriously.

I'm not an economist, so I can only speculate on the impact of current high energy prices. I've read a lot of dissenting opinions over the past week - some opinions coming from people who appear to have a lot of knowledge regarding the impact of energy prices on the economy. I try to weigh all the opinions I read to determine whether I'm going to adjust my portfolio in response to the current situation. When I read Sheik Yamani's opinion, I know he is a man with a lot of experience in the area of oil price fluctuations. When I read James Cramer's opinion on the current situation, I know Cramer is a trader with bullish tendencies who only on extremely rare occasions thinks the market is going to go down. When I read President Clinton's statements, well, you know I can't help but think that if Mark Twain were alive today, he would have amended his famous "There is no distinctly native American criminal class, except Congress" quote to include the White House. When I read GST's opinion on the current situation, well, it's hard for me to judge his opinion - because I know nothing about the guy (or girl, or...).

Anyway, we've probably beaten this subject to death. The market was down today, and may go down more this week - but I'm still not convinced that it is going to go down enough to justify my selling all my stocks at the moment. But, we'll wait and see what happens.

As for GST, I wish he would fess up and treat us all to a web rendition of Tiny Bubbles.

-Eric



To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (108299)9/11/2000 10:01:28 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
Thanks Sarmad: Do other people get asked this kind of question? I just chose GST cause my name was already taken. It never crossed my mind to post my credentials. I am far freer to tell people exactly what I think this way. BTW, Eric said the same thing when I criticized MSFT -- "what are your credentials to say that MSFT is not innovative -- are you a software engineer, etc, etc." -- perhaps he has some kind of authority thing. To me it is a sign of mental laziness -- wanting to know whom to "believe" rather than thinking for yourself. Anyway -- thanks and good luck. I hope we have a few hours in the black -- I need to regroup.