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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (17438)	9/11/2000 10:07:30 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

as always, timing is the key issue. the long energy trade should have been put on early last year, and the short the Dow trade early this year. in the old era btw. it was a rule of thumb that the first leg up in a commodity bull market coincided with the last leg up of an equity bull market. however it seems to me that this is too simplistic a view now, as the use of derivatives influences markets enormously, especially the fantasy markets like that for stocks. furthermore the immense growth in the money supply and private sector debt is really unprecedented...we have never before seen their like, except perhaps during John Law's Mississippi bubble, and that had the drawback that hedonic adjustments hadn't been invented yet... -g- good night...