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To: Perspective who wrote (17459)	9/11/2000 10:20:43 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

you have to factor in the Greenspan put...the firm belief by market participants that he will save the market from any serious decline, which in turn makes actual put buying unnecessary and makes the declines themselves less likely... his introduction of moral hazard is among other things what has made this mania possible....you know, the bubble that didn't exist and has become less of a bubble now....

To: Perspective who wrote (17459)	9/11/2000 10:39:39 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 436258

<I agree with the idea of buying on that trendline test, much like I should have been buying on the 200DSMA test today. > Ho ho ho... they'll be many more trendlines broken shortly... no rush. DAK

To: Perspective who wrote (17459)	9/12/2000 8:43:06 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

BC, First of all, I think many were caught by the rookie mistake of piling on more puts when things looked real bad earlier this year. I know I had my turn at over the poot toilet. I am actually grateful for the expensive lessons I learned. As for your question When is a trendline broken?... With decent charting software is is pretty easy to tell on a daily timeframe. But, after seeing it broken there I will usually do the following: 1) Check that the volume is significant. For CSCO it was. 2) Check wider timeframes, say, weekly and monthly. I want to verify that there is indeed some air under the trendline and not some other significant support waiting a few percent down. (* see below) I would also consider a trendline break to be an important break only if: 1) It is a line of an important (i.e., lengthy) pattern. The CSCO wedge has been in effect since May so it counts. 2) If not part of a pattern, then a TL must be touched/tested more than once to really catch my attention. * Regarding wider/longer timeframes. Most people only study recent weeks of price action. It is important to place the TL in a bigger context. It is so often the case that a TL that forms in recent price activity is actually "born" in price action from months or years before. I'll use CSCO again as an example. The dominant TL for chart is the rising TL that supported the price appreciation for all of 1999. This TL was not born in 1999 however. It goes all the way back to the early 1990's. Check out how CSCO has revolved around this line for so many years. Anyway, this TL is the one for CSCO. It is currently pointing to the $54/$55 area and rising. CSCO coming back to $55 would simply restablish its bullish equilibrium.