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Pastimes : G&K Investing for Curmudgeons -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (6067)	9/12/2000 8:20:28 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22706

Why sell globalstar? Most of the bad news is in. Hanging in with a LTB&H approach could reap a multibagger over next 24 months. Best sign: Gregg Powers is big on it. Everyone else hates it. hi stan, i didn't sell all of gstrf...just 2/3 i was up 35% on those. i plan to let the rest run. i am very willing to buy them back when i get a better sense of things. i have read everything i can find that greg powers and gilder have written on gstrf. i respect them both...especially for their DD. gstrf is an all or nothing deal. it is presently stumbling and bumbling across the chasm. marketing seems very inadequate to me...ask yourself, do you know where to go to buy a globalstar satellite phone? if you do know...is it because of gstrf marketing efforts? do your well-traveled friends know about the phone? do they own one? also, i assigned a lot of weight to the airline deal, now that too is stalled. the other potential big player is the military...i believe they are still in testing. financially imo, gstrf cannot tolerate delays right now. i have learned to preserve some profit when shiny pebbles show signs of weakness or problems. you said most of the bad news is in, and i agree but a few dark clouds remain...gstrf runs out of money in a few months...imo either dilution or bk seem inevetible. if gstrf is succeeding, i can live with the dilution...in a bk the shareholders will probably get little or nothing. i am looking for some concrete sign or signs that sales are picking up or will pick up very soon. i am not getting that yet. that makes gstrf a trader for me. on the other hand, the risk reward ratio is huge...gigantic..., so i kept a position in case my short term prognosis is wrong. also thinking maybe gilder and powers have access to info i don't. all is far from rosy here...in the last 2 quarters phone rev was $177,000 and $483,000. that is 175% sequential growth and all alone looks pretty good...but gstrf needs at least $125 million every quarter to break even. gstrf is also carrying a huge bundle of debt. they need large customers and quick. perhaps a safer way to play to gstrf is LOR. they own 40% of gstrf..lor has been beaten down with gstrf's problems. if gstrf succeeds, lor will do great....i am beginning to think if gstrf fails, lor will do great too. as the weight will then be lifted. need to study this some more. a basket may be in order here. uw

To: Apollo who wrote (6067)	9/12/2000 2:10:29 PM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 22706

hi stan...re gstrf as i said... i was looking for a good sign...finally, today i got 2. on cnbc today...Dr J said he believes Q will make a profit on gstrf. next i read this...it works out to 192,000 batteries per month...if that many phones are being ordered i am truly impressed. uw Demand for Globalstar batteries strong VLNC is currently using the majority of its available capacity for shipments of batteries to QCOM for the Globalstar handset. The company indicated that demand currently exceeds capacity and that it is ramping quickly. We note that QCOM reported record shipments (31,000 units in Q3FY00) of Globalstar handsets during its last investor conference call. The current assembly line manufacturing the batteries has a capacity to produce 20 bi-cells a minute. CIBC believes that the configuration of the Qualcomm battery is 9 bi-cells per battery. VLNC is currently operating two lines running 24/7 for Qualcomm's requirements. This battery does not include any electronics with it. CIBC believes that VLNC may see additional follow on releases which would increase current volumes through the remainder of this fiscal year and through next fiscal year.