To: Mark Adams who wrote (263 ) 9/12/2000 1:43:31 AM From: Mark Adams Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 350 The tidbits I found most interesting... ... higher energy prices disproportionately increase the cost of production for energy-intensive industries. As energy price increases are passed along by industry through higher prices for their products, consumers will tend to substitute away from the relatively expensive energy-intensive products to less energy-intensive products and services. The consequences are reductions in gross output from the energy-intensive sectors of the economy, principally, chemicals and allied products; stone, clay, glass, and concrete; and primary metals. Third, the changing composition of macroeconomic final demand will alter the composition of sectoral output. [ Should Fiscal Policy be used to ease the higher energy costs ] through personal income tax rebates, moderating the projected impacts on disposable income. Consequently, in percentage terms, consumer spending falls by less than GDP, while investment falls by more. This change in the composition of final demand decreases the output from consumer-related sectors, such as services and retail trade, by less than the average drop for all economic output, while decreasing the output from the construction and manufacturing sectors by more than the average. Note- I don't think this is quite correct. In some cases, the effort to improve energy efficiency would drive some investment. Also of interest are the Figures 116-118, which show the inflationary impact curves depending on the increased cost of energy, with the -3% being the most expensive case and the +24% being the least expensive case. If I remember corrrectly, all the graphs assume an accomodative Fed and Fiscal policy, which are not guarenteed in our present circumstances.