Rande, are you home?
RE: << Not buying FCEL, CPST, HPOW or other "me too" recent IPOs. >>
I wouldn't dismiss out of hand the likes of CPST or FCEL--- or, for that matter (although not in your 'me too' list), ACPW or the upcoming IPO BCON (Beacon) as "me too" technologies.
CPST, for one, is hardly a "me too". They don't make anything that looks, smells, sounds, walks like, quacks like, or even rhymes with fuel cell. They make microturbines. State of the art, that is. An art, incidentally, which is more developed than fuel cell technology, much of which is still in beta or even alpha, running up rather costly research bills at universities and corporate R&D facilities. The only thing they have in common with fuel cells is that the micros they make require some sort of fuel to make them go. The "me too" ends there.
Capstone's technology is more mature than any of the others you mention. They have real product, real customers, real revenue, real patent portfolio, real ambition, real vision-----and thus, a real future, IMHO. Their goal is to provide highly reliable backup---or stand alone---power to the digital economy. Not homes (though that's plausible), or vehicles (though CPST's micros have been powering buses longer than BLDP's fuel cells). You might seriously consider them.
capstoneturbine.com
Capstone manufactures a 30kW micro, with a 60kW model due out Q1 '01. Costs $30K at the moment, with costs expected to drop substantially as economies of scale enable this to occur. Runs on just about any fuel, even trash dump waste methane, and is nearly pollution free (NOx < 5ppm; one micro in La Puente, CA running on landfill methane produces 1.3 ppm, qualifying it as zero emissions; that's green). They are quiet, about the size of a large refrigerator (weight 1,082 lbs), can be run indoors or out, in all temperatures and weather, and in remote locations. They are extremely reliable and simply engineered (single shaft, no oil, patented air bearing system). They can be arranged in redundant parallel "10 pack" RAID arrays, with "plug and play", hot-swappable scaleability, and they can be remotely monitored via modem. Their power electronics (MOSFETs, IGBTs, etc.) ensure the delivery of extremely high nines power, either ride through or stand alone, as well as seamless power handoffs (in the case of ride through systems) which disrupt neither downstream load nor upstream grid. Output from the generator which spins on the same shaft as the turbine (96,000 rpm) is 1600 Hz AC, converted via power semiconductors to rock steady 480 VAC or 100 to 400 VDC. For ride-through systems, excess power generated can even be distributed back onto the grid and sold.
Capstone puts its money where its mouth is: one entire section of Capstone's new plant is completely off-grid, running 24/7 solely on it's own microturbines at 6 or 7 nines reliability (i.e., a reliability 3 or 4 orders of magnitude better than the best the grid can ever hope to offer). Their primary market (at this point) is the replacement of the untold tons of battery arrays which currently provide expensive, not terribly reliable, toxic backup power to the digital economy. They sell a solution which today is a cost-effective, green alternative to such battery arrays, which take up enormous space, and must be replaced every few years. Running costs are about one third that of a similar output diesel genset, with far less maintenance required, and more reliability.
IMHO, CPST will easily eclipse BLDP in time. Matter of fact, BLDP now appears to be backing off from targeting vehicles for its technology. Long term, they seem to be seeing the same handwriting on the walls that CPST, FCEL, BCON, and other "me toos" saw years ago. Ballard Power Systems is a joint Ballard/GPU/ALSTOM SA/EBARA venture which finished its first prototype 250kW fuel-cell based power plant a year ago, and anticipates shipping commercial product in two or three years. Obviously, plants this size are not intended for vehicles of any kind.
And FCEL---another "me too"---is way ahead of them there, blurring the distinction between "first to market" and "me too" just a tad. FCEL is shipping 300kW to 3MW fuel cell based power plant units right now. So is ONSI, a division of UTX. Neither is going after the automobile market, partly because that's not where the real money will be made. Assuming, that is, that an acceptable, functioning, reliable fuel cell technology can be cost-effectively mass produced for automobiles, and is superior to currently available automobile technology. No small task----people have been trying to develop electric and various hybrid vehicles for decades. The result: no car.
In a sublimely ironic twist of fate (and history and Mr. Market are nothing if not imbued with a seeming delight in ironic twists of fate)----it just might be BLDP which ends up being the "me too", ultimately striking out in the automotive world, and instead relegated to playing frantic catch up with the likes of----you guessed it----FCEL.
Detroit still sells mass-produced internal combustion engines, which so far have proven superior overall, all things considered. That could change, of course, but it is hardly a foregone conclusion that cars in the foreseeable future will inevitably be fuel cell powered. Remember, for generations, Detroit (and Tokyo) has hired a small army of fairly innovative automotive engineers. I doubt that they have been sitting around waiting for BLDP to burst onto the scene like some Messiah to solve all their environmental and power problems........
And consider this fact, and how it might affect BLDP's future, and why BLDP now appears to be shifting direction away from automobiles: The new Nissan Sentra CA burns gasoline in a standard internal combustion engine, but with three catalytic converters, and meets California's Super Ultra Low Emission Vehicle (SULEV) standard. So does the new Honda Civic GX (also an internal combustion engine). Do Nissan and Honda really need BLDP? And, if they don't, why would Detroit? I'd bet you dollars to protons that Detroit is rapidly nearing its own internal combustion solution to meet SULEV, also without the grace of BLDP. Why pay more? Why pay anyone if you don't have to? This is big business after all, not ooooh aaahh Popular Science: If you really need the technology, buy it, or obviate it with your own solution, but don't pay anyone for it if you don't have to.
<< I'm waiting for the Hybrid electric version... >>
So is the rest of the world. For three or four decades now.
<< High oil prices are the catalyst for todays move. >>
Nope. Oil is no longer the relevant fuel. Electrons are. Microprocessors continue to proliferate around the planet, and not a single one runs on oil. The digital economy is solidly electron based. [okay, okay, photonic phanatics: also based on photons, the quantum cousin to the electron, but still photons ultimately have to be transformed back into electrons to complete microcircuits] And, even electron production is becoming less and less dependent on oil [have you noticed that the steadily rising oil prices have produced exactly zero inflationary effects? This would not have been the case 25 years ago, as anyone who lived through the "oil crisis" will attest to]. New power plants are increasingly gas-fired turbines (Check out Calpine and their rapidly growing portfolio, for example), which are cheaper, greener, and more efficient than other power plants, including nuclear. If I could, I would buy long-term puts on OPEC.
[Did you notice the distinct lack of repercussions from their Sunday meeting? I remember a day when everyone got more nervous about OPEC meetings than they now do about FOMC meetings, and people used "OPEC" and "extortion" in the same sentence routinely.]
Overall growth rate in power consumption in the US is 2% per year, but digital-related power requirements are growing at 30% per year in wattage terms. That two percent figure will be much higher, but for now the denominator is very large. That will change rapidly: electricity accounted for 25% of our energy consumption 25 years ago, now accounts for 37%, and in a decade or two this figure will be 50%, with the vast majority of this increase derived from digital power requirements, not more TVs, light bulbs, electric motors, and air conditioners. It is digital devices, not electric motors, which are explosively infiltrating every area of society and upon which we are becoming increasingly dependent. The huge economic advantages afforded by digital devices of all types will inexorably drive demand for clean, highly reliable power sources, only an insignificant fraction of which will be derived from an antiquated power infrastructure which is inherently and inescapably incapable of meeting the power reliability imperative of the expanding digital infrastructure.
<< So do not misunderstand what is happening. Fuel Cells are not a fad. . . >>
Yes. Yes. Couldn't agee with you more. But the first sentence is critically important.
So, Rande, if you're home.......and you've got a few hours to kill, count up all the digital devices multiplying like rabbits all over your home. And don't forget the myriad devices quietly but increasingly incorporating RISC processors, which account for 97% or so of all microprocessors manufactured annually. Bet you've got hundreds, maybe even thousands in your home, and several on your body-----your wristwatch, for example. That should be enough to convince you that the overwhelming focus going forward-----in your home and mine, not to mention the vast majority of institutions and businesses of all kinds-----is not about cars and oil, but electrons, sir, electrons. Pinpoint the pivotal controllers of the electrons, and you will thereby pinpoint investments that will inevitably bring enormous wealth to those with the perspicacity to see it---for decades to come. You one day might be surprised to find that some of your "me toos" are among them.
And, sir, I sincerely hope when that day arrives, we are both pleasantly surprised to discover that we correctly identified these companies----presently infant King Kongs, perhaps-----prospectively.
As always, JMVHO..........
Regards,
Walkingshadow |
