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To: powershred who wrote (6785)	9/12/2000 1:46:26 PM
From: Bill	Respond to of 14638

Interesting, but where's the news? Is it a surprise to anyone that cap spending growth will begin to slow some day? Sheesh.

To: powershred who wrote (6785)	9/12/2000 5:00:55 PM
From: peggylynn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

More on cap ex slowdown...per ANALyst... powershred - I have some doubts as to who these analysts are speaking to at the major telco's or if they have even bothered. These opinions smell an awfully lot like someone crunching numbers in a financial model without any understanding of the fundamental business. The cold hard facts are that those telcos who do not increase capital expenditures in order to reduce labor costs will find themselves in the financial dust heap. The established telcos whose profits have been hit the hardest are those have kept a death grip on their legacy equipment and its associated astronomical labor costs. New carriers with goofy business plans or a lack of ethics that risks investors money are not going to flourish. At some point, the market will manage to sift through the flawed logic of the arguments being made for a telecommunications capital expenditure slowdown. That said, I expect that it will take some time for the market to catch up with reality. It looks like we are in for the same senseless hysteria that accompanied the semiconductor "slowdown" scare. I think that was based on a similarly questionable financial model constructed in isolation from the underlying fundamentals of the business being analyzed. The market always tends to greatly overreact--both on the upside and downside. It's a lot more fun when it's reacting on the upside to stocks one owns. JMHO, but the market momentum seems to be getting into silly territory on the downside. The economy remains very healthy and all those wonderful productivity gains we have been enjoying are in no small part being driven by improved communications technology. - peggylynn