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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (73184)	9/12/2000 5:09:53 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

HO HO HO! Greenlawn is TOAST!! Look at the drain on that gasoline!! Look at the drain on that Crude!!! Crude to $36 tomorrow, easy! EDIT: 2 buck a gallon unleaded coming to a station near you!

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (73184)	9/12/2000 6:11:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Smoooooooke on the water, smoke. A 5.7 net draw? The next sound you hear will be 10,000 OSX shorts falling off their chairs from cardiac arrest! I wonder if Greenlaw canceled his subscription to Barron's yet? What happened to ole Bernie? Maybe he's that guy with the tank farm in Oklahoma, going incognito. I expected gasoline to be down, but not crude. HO up a teensy bit higher than I thought. No doubt about it, this report will only fuel fears OPEC isn't producing enough. Net, net, net, US aggregate stocks are rolling over and in a few short weeks will start their seasonal El Plunjo from already incredibly low levels.

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (73184)	9/12/2000 9:05:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

More API info and some good analysis... More API.......Filler up by: supplyside_econ 9/12/00 6:10 pm Msg: 16595 of 16608 API crude stocks excluding PADD5 +.630 mil bbls PADD 1 Heat stocks up 1.5 mil bbls PADD1 RFG Gas stocks down 1.6 mil bbls Implied gas demand 9.18 vs 8.51 last week Implied Heat demand 3.72 vs 3.93 last week Padd 1 High Sulphur Distillate (Heating Oil) 23,015 vs 22,421 last week and 47,530 last year Crude stocks 288,615 vs 309,554 last year Heat stocks 115,008 vs 143,765 last year Gas stocks 195,927 vs 201,821 last year Crude imports 9.358 vs 9.403 last week Product imports 2.236 vs 2.089 last week On access Oct crude -15 at $34.13 Oct gas +90 at 94.80c Oct heat -33 at $1.04 AGA guess for tomorrow: +50 - 60 bcf vs 81 bcf last year during same period Analysis: Well, it looks like somebody enjoyed the labor day holiday. Where did everyone drive to over the last weekend. Ironically we did a fair amount of crude building in PADD III, a focus of refining in the U.S. Guf, however, guess what refinery production rates dropped almost 1.5%. Just a little note: the refineries in this area are still working over 4% harder than they did last year, even with this drop--I would say demand is up a tad. Once again, the High Sulphur Distillates(Home Heating Oil) in PADD I, barley budged year over year(Deficit over 24 mil bbls). In fact Heating Oil in PADD I built a paltry .600 mil bbls. The big jump in PADD I Distillates was due to Diesel, and other Low-Sulphur products.(up .900 mil bbls, hence 1.5 mil build). The theme is pretty straightforward, we get crude oil, refine it for strong demand, while leaving little to be put on the shelves. Even though, we do not have a case of panic buying as refineries hold of purchases, it must be recognized that these capital intense assets, need a break, regardless of what the refining margin story is in the prevailing mkt. Yes, they would be foolish too miss out on profits, but not at the expense of causing substantial damage to their assets. It is a tight mkt. In conclusion, the oil mkt could use a rest, so what, the winning ticket is still held by those that have believed this story before I even typed a word tonight. What a dream to have inventories repeat their year end 1999 levels Supplyside