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To: Rarebird who wrote (58103)	9/12/2000 5:54:12 PM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

Didn't you know that the time to buy is when all love has gone? You've laid out the perfect scenario. And isn't trading in a narrow range known as 'congestion'- preceeding a break - UP or Down? Peace be with you O Chosen One!

To: Rarebird who wrote (58103)	9/13/2000 12:48:51 AM
From: PaulM	Respond to of 116762

Rarebird, a little perspective from a three year GPMer if your wondering about the "logic" of stock, currency and precious metals markets, it may be better to focus on the logic of the political interests of the major financial players, rather than fundamentals Take a look at this NASDAQ chart again, and notice the early april plunge: bigcharts.com Okay now take a look at this dollar index chart and notice the april spike, futures.tradingcharts.com so what this means is that the biggest one month inflow of foreign capital came into the US simultaneous with US markets crashing. Does that make you wonder: why? Why didn't those europeans at least wait until the NASDAQ stabilized before snatching up all those tech bargains? My answer: "they" weren't necessarily Europeans. "They" may simply a hedge fund other financial insitution (maybe one with close ties to, say, the US Federal Reserve and/or other central banks). Rarebird, did it ever strike you as strange that the Japanese Yen had its greatest ever one day appreciation against the dollar when LTCM collapsed? Or that the Yen has been so strong ever since? During the prior years it was widely acknowledged that Japanese liquidity was driving US markets. We were told that the "Japanese" were taking their money out of Japan, but apparently, it wasn't just the Japanese. (And while we're on the subject--is it typical for a business on the verge of liquidation to call the Federal Reserve in hopes of a bailout?) All of this is just speculation of course. But I do think the major market changes in our future are likely to be very discontinuous, politically inspired events. Not the types of things you can get from studying technicals (sentiment) or fundamentals.