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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (31504)	9/12/2000 6:07:50 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>> I list 22 of them from best performer to what we all know has been the difficult performer. It is no surprise to find 5 of our G&K list located at various points in the the top ten list. We find another 4 of them in the bottom ten performers. Interesting. Do you derive any conclusions from the data? uf

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (31504)	9/13/2000 5:09:14 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

I wrote: What does some of the data show us for such stocks from 52 week highs to current prices in terms of how these stocks have performed and what perceived weakness is? Now I list the same 22 stocks as well as the benchmarks to see how they did from best performer to not so best performer from their 52 week lows. This time we find only a few of our G&K's in the top ten. However, the majority of that has to do with what I have been calling the 'age mix' factor in terms of growth rates for younger, smaller companies/candidates and their location in respective games as opposed to the larger companies growing from a broader revenue base and more mature. As with the other post of looking back to see how the stocks have performed from their highs, this is simply a snapshot of one moment in time covering a 52 week period. If we look at the benchmarks as well as the historical 52 week return period - we should certainly have nothing but smiles on our faces. That holds true even in a corrective phase or whatever one wants to call the current selling action post-August that we are experiencing. The crowd swarms like bees...don't they? You could overlay the data with beta, relative strength, market multiples, trends, charting, volume, earnings/revenue growth, margins, position in the technology adoption life cycle or whatever one would like to use if attempting to draw any conclusions. Each equity, or almost each equity, will draw you to have different conclusions as the list of stocks are all at various points in their technology adoption life cycles and their respective 'games'. I certainly wasn't attempting to stir up any trouble, but rather take a look at where some of the stocks we follow have been on their 52 week journey from the lows to the highs and where they currently stand. When I do that with my own personal portfolio I can view the larger picture from where the investments have come over the years (or months) and not be drawn to the urge of panic selling for the sake of selling and protecting anything during the shorter term. Instead, I ask the questions "enabling or application game?", "where are we in the cycle?", "who are the players and what are their respective market share positions in the game?", "what are the market share positions of the competing technologies?", etc... . When I do that and compare it to some of the price action in the stocks I can either say "that makes sense" or "that's way out of whack". You can apply this to eCRM/CRM, B2B, the IP core router space, the data transport market, the voice over IP market, the new access market, core transport optical market or data storage market. Plenty of fodder available in each of those areas to study. Anyway - enough of that. Here's the more optimistic view of where our investments have come from the low ends of the past 52 weeks. • QQQ +59.6% 52 week low of 57 3/8 and current price of $91 3/8 • Nasdaq Composite +46.2% 52 week low of 2632.01 and current price of 3849.51 • i2 +782.8% 52 week low of $18 1/4 and current price of $161 1/8 • Network Appliance +598.8% 52 week low of $15 5/8 and current price of $109 3/16 • Juniper +538.7% 52 week low of $29 11/16 and current price of $189 5/8 • Siebel +458.6% 52 week low of $15 7/8 and current price of $88 11/16 • Rambus +425% 52 week low of $14 5/8 and current price of $76 13/16 • Brocade +330.9% 52 week low of $48 5/8 and current price of $209 9/16 • Broadcom +322.2% 52 week low of $51 9/16 and current price of $218 • Oracle +300.6% 52 week low of $19 15/16 and current price of $79 3/8 • Sandisk +311% 52 week low of $18 7/8 and current price of $77 5/8 • JDS Uniphase +292% 52 week low of $26 5/16 and current price of $103 3/16 • Cree +262.6% 52 week low of $32 1/8 and current price of $116 1/2 • EMC +209% 52 week low of $30 and current price of $92 13/16 • PeopleSoft +197.9% Previous 52 week low of $12 and closed at 35 3/4 • Sun Microsystems +178.8% 52 week low of $41 and current price of $114 5/16 • Nortel +177.7% 52 week low of $23 and current price of $63 7/8 • Gemstar +177.3% 52 week low of $29 9/16 and current price of $82 • Redback +158.7% 52 week low of $50 and current price of $129 3/4 • Sycamore +140% 52 week low of $47 1/4 and current price of $113 7/16 • Intel +99.8% 52 week low of $32 1/2 and current price of $64 15/16 • Cisco +81% 52 week low of $32 1/2 and current price of $58 7/8 • Qualcomm +59% 52 week low of $38 1/16 and current price of $61 7/16 • Microsoft +12.8% 52 week low of $60 3/8 and current price of $68 1/8 BB