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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (31507)	9/12/2000 6:35:39 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Respond to of 54805

Seriously, do you think this data challenges the oft cited premise that Gorillas are the last to founder and the first to recover in a market downturn? Seems like, as usual, we need qualifications on such generalizations for time frame and "all else being equal". In a 52 week time frame we are looking at neither the long term buy and hold framework in which we have confidence that gorilla will out, as it were, nor are we looking at a short term dip and recovery pattern which is unrelated to broader market trends. Besides, to consider the statement, what we really need to see is trendlines of the stocks up against the trendline of the market as a whole, not just highest peak, lowest valley, and current status.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (31507)	9/12/2000 6:55:38 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

Seriously, do you think this data challenges the oft cited premise that Gorillas are the last to founder and the first to recover in a market downturn? Not at all. If and when money rushes back in, we know where a lot of it's going to go. There is the safety of the big, well known stocks. I neglected to mention that what I found interesting in some of the percentage losses were to compare them to the QQQ's 24% loss and the Nasdaq Composite's 25% loss from their 52 week peaks. Some stocks have outperformed those two measuring sticks and have been holding up quite well in this corrective phase. Others have slipped below those benchmarks. Considering the wild speculation that did enter some, if not all of the equities on that list of 22 over the past 52 weeks, not much can be drawn in aggregate. Especially since that data only provides a quick snapshot of one moment in time. I do continue to be very impressed with the storage three - EMC, Network Appliance and Brocade. I was going to post some nice recent news links for all of them, but my iBook keeps crashing with Netscape Communicator. That seems to be the least of my worries today... BB