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To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (73210)	9/12/2000 8:11:40 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

>> YES, I AM IN DENIAL! but I'm sorry but I don't trust this report << Yes, you are in denial. The extra oil that OPEC has agreed to will not start until Oct 1st. Add 6 weeks and it gets here just in time for the normal winter draws. Just enough to maybe avoid a crisis. Assuming they can get it here... Trying to short at a peak without first waiting for the trend to reverse is tricky at best. When successful it feels incredible, but given the odds it usually results in losses. The market is just as likely to be irrational on the way up similar to the irrationality shown when oil was $12 and FLC was $5. Many smart people went broke shorting Nasdaq stocks in 1999 and early 2000. I wonder how many will go broke shorting Boom 2000+? We are merely approaching fair value given the existing fundamentals. If we have a long cycle who knows. Have you gone back and looked at the 8+ year cycle shown by oil stocks from the 1973 on. We have yet to see the push once estimates get raised let alone the experience the mo-mo investors flocking to our sector in droves as techs crash.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (73210)	9/12/2000 8:42:07 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 95453

greenlaw I think the problem is that you appear to be guessing. You say the storage numbers are going to be bearish this week but present no facts to support that scenario. Just a hunch? You are usually better off just staying with the primary trend rather than trying to guess when every little reversal in the primary trend occurs. My late uncle once told me....successful investors make their decisions on facts, unsuccessful investors make their decisions on hunches. John

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (73210)	9/12/2000 8:48:08 PM
From: Post_Patrol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Also Tuesday, October crude futures dropped 86 cents to settle at $34.28 a barrel after setting a new 10-year high on Monday. See Crude Report. "With the OSX at 142, expect to see significant insider selling by the managements who remember 1997 and don't want to miss an opportunity again, even if it isn't 1997 all over again," Dain Rauscher energy analyst Jim Wicklund wrote. The patrol

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (73210)	9/12/2000 10:37:22 PM
From: anyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Greenie, Haven't you heard there aren't enough tankers to bring over the crude. Even if SA increases production, where are they going to put it; on the ground? Not enough tankers. Not enough rigs. Not enough workers. Not enough pipelines[the ones we have are old and corroded]. You have been listening too long to CNBC, where the SPIGOT mentality prevails. They keep asking " when is OPEC going to turn on the SPIGOT?" The stage of DENIAL is over and the stage of ANGER is beginning. Who will be blamed? Big oil or Big government. When 50% of the population will vote for a liar, the answer is clear. Regards, Anyer