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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (727)	9/12/2000 9:06:03 PM
From: Voltaire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Hi JW, Love your analysis. Ref. Soft landing. A lot of the Wharton School of Bus laws are not as significant as they were in the past as a result of a Global Economy. For instance I feel a soft landing is much easier to accomplish when working in concert with other participants. A good example is OPEC and probably our reluctance to raise interest rates as a result of the Euro's plight. Just musing, V

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (727)	9/13/2000 9:10:01 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

>>productivity numbers continue to astonish<< jim, the "astonishing" aspect of the productivity numbers are due to hedonic pricing, a statistical method of measuring "characteristics" of items and not their literal value. hedonic pricing was instituted in 1996 b/c the productivity gains that greenspan "knew" existed (with no evidence) weren't showing up using the standard formulas. therefore, greenspan changed the formula. the "productivity miracle" started in 1996. more like a statistical mirage. really! in short, the productivity miracle is NOT related to increased productivity as measured in the traditional financial way. it is ENTIRELY due to a statistical adjustment that no other nation in the world uses. productivity is up about 2.5-3% +- using traditional financial (reade - REAL!) gauges.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (727)	9/14/2000 3:01:43 AM
From: philip j gerth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Will the new economy cancel out the rise in energy prices and keep inflation at bay? Sorry guys I don't think so I believe we all better jump on the last train of this bull market in October. After the election we are headed for a severe inflationary period. So lock in those mortgage rates and hang on for the ride. Moneyguy "Did ya know money talks? My wife swears it says spend me!"

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (727)	9/14/2000 9:45:10 AM
From: Thotdoc	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

One version of the promise of the net will be a reality when voice is completely enabled. That will look like me or you talking to the portal and it acts on my statements as a personal assistant with an intellegent knowledge of my history and preferences so it can make reasonable decisions at decision points. We are in the infancy of the net. Likely, there is no one alive today with the slightest idea of where the net will be when it, if it ever, finally matures to the point of reaching its full potential. All we are seing in the markets now is business as usual. I love all of the after the fact explanations of why the market does what it does. In seeking explanations, IMHO, it's always best to back to basics. The market is a mob of followers whose direction is turned based on who is screaming the loudest, who has the power in the moment to manipulate it for their own purposes. The essence of the market today is played out as a money game without values, morals or purpose--other than to make money in an I win, you lose game of greed. The more ideal purpose of the market has value. By investing over the long haul in management that has the vision, spirit, and the ability to use the heightened value of the stock to make th ecompany more productive and to serve its clients better, we investors make money and society is served. But we're not playing that game, so lets make money. Figure out who has the real power, who is winning, and who is always losing. What ar ethe largest patterns. Get far enough away from your personal winning and losing, see the most abstract set of predictive patterns that your intellect allows you to see, and bet those patterns. Best regards to the idealistic longs who conduct extensive and productive DD, invest for the long haul, believe, hold and help th eeconomy build by adding value to the management teams of the companies that deserve it...may the rest of you get what you deserve. The internet, as a conduit and part of an intellegent network, is the future of technology. Figure out where its going and how its going to get there, give yourself a reasonable timeline to get past the ups and downs created by people who can't get beyond living life as if the now is the past and the future, and enjoy the trip. G