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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (17792)9/12/2000 9:40:05 PM
From: Terry Whitman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
You're thinking way too clearly- Have a nuther hit off the glue bong and buy da dip in da techs. <g>



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (17792)9/12/2000 10:54:35 PM
From: Don Lloyd  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
patron -

[...11)Prices throughout the energy complex explode when it becomes apparent that this energy crisis "really IS different this time". It is a crisis of demand exceeding WORLDWIDE supply, for the first time in modern world history.

Thus, the Supply curve, (now rendered inelastic by inaction and regulation) and Demand curve (elevated by booming markets and unrestrained economic growth) are set on an inexorable collision course. Hype? I don't think so, sir!!!]

Great post.

The only obvious things you left out were that it is the long held policy of the administration to force high gasoline prices, subject only to the danger of the loss of political support, and that the EPA insists that every city get its own specific form of gasoline, with the smell specifically tailored to either mask or match the stench of its Democratic mayor, as desired.

Regards, Don



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (17792)9/12/2000 11:15:40 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
The sort of quality that one only finds on this distinguished thread ladies and gentlemen. -g

Nice post patron.



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (17792)9/13/2000 12:50:59 AM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
An outstanding post. How do I nominate it for "Post of the Day" ? I almost responded to rrman myself, but you did far better than I ever could have.

I have tremendous problems explaining this to anyone, since they're all sucked into the Bubble, but markets are omnipotent. When prices for a commodity are low, it produces the conditions that cause the inevitable upswing to follow. As long as there is a lag between the market condition and market response, markets are fated to oscillate between conditions of excessive supply and excessive demand. Anyone who has ever taking Linear Control Theory knows that a feedback loop with enough delay rings by nature.

Nowhere is this more evident than in commodities. Credit cycles are borne of the same phenomenon.

This is quite true of the semiconductor market as well, which is why the industry has traditionally held below average PE ratios despite long-term growth trends. Now to demonstrate for us, please welcome MU!

207.61.23.98

BC



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (17792)9/13/2000 2:01:59 AM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
i likewise nominate this post for post of the day...a well-rounded concise explanation of what the heck happened with oil...

and a far cry from what i just saw on German TV, where the report consisted of trying to find out who's responsible (we need a scapegoat after all) and ended up with everybody accusing everybody else, lol...

gn



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (17792)9/13/2000 8:55:40 AM
From: robnhood  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
WOW--- OK ,,uncle, uncle



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (17792)9/15/2000 1:21:19 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Hmmm, ContraryInvestor expands on the "oil bubble" theory. Didn't I talk about this stuff a couple days ago?<GGG> A nice, well-researched piece:

contraryinvestor.com