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To: Tomas who wrote (73241)9/13/2000 7:27:38 AM
From: Tomas  Respond to of 95453
 
Rising oil prices no longer bogeyman
The Globe & Mail, September 13
VOX Column

Rising oil prices aren't living up to their reputation as a harbinger of economic doom. Given their continuing runup, history says we should be drowning in inflation, higher interest rates or recession. We are not, and are not likely to be, at least not because of oil. In the past 30 years, the North American economy's consumption of oil per dollar of real GDP has fallen almost in half; the decline continued through the nineties. North America's share of world oil consumption has declined by 40 per cent in the same period.

As for the recent runup in oil prices, it started from a very low point. The average price of oil over the past 40 years in 1999 dollars is $25.75 (U.S.). The current oil rally has run from about $11 to $35. (The price of oil in 1979 was close to $90.) In terms of inflation, furthermore, all that matters is the rate at which oil prices rise, not the level they rise to. Oil price inflation is in fact slowing. There's far less to worry about from rising oil prices today than there once was.