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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (29652)	9/13/2000 9:34:42 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

We're pretty much right at the May NDX/COMPX trendlines. Break or bounce, anyone?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (29652)	9/13/2000 6:38:35 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 42787

Sign Of The Bear cometh? Don Hays this morning had a fascinating excerpt from Peter Eliades' latest: Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles update for Monday, September 11th. Today was the 20th day of churning on the New York Stock Exchange. If tomorrow is a churning day, the stage will be set for a Sign of the Bear signal. Because the signal is so rare, we would like to take some extra space today and describe it in a little more detail. For those who are interested in a lot more detail, read our article in the May 4th, 1998 edition of Barron's magazine entitled " Danger: Bear May Be Crossing." What we look for is a pattern of 21-27 consecutive days where the daily advance/ decline ratio on the New York exchange is between 0.65 on the low side and 1.95 on the high side. We characterize such a period of consecutive days as "churning. " It is also characterized by very bullish sentiment inasmuch as a full month's period of time elapses (there are 21 market days, on average, in a month) without a significant down day. One of the most important elements of a completed Sign of the Bear signal is that the number of consecutive days of churning must end with a down day. In other words the streak must end with a single day advance decline ratio below 0.65 rather than a ratio higher than 1.95. There is only one more requirement after that occurs- either the two-day or the three-day average of the daily advance decline ratio after the consecutive street ends must be below 0.75. In other words, there must be a convincing breakdown from the consecutive streak pattern of churning days. That's all there is to it. Over the past 73 years, these requirements have been met on only six occasions. Here are the dates: July 22nd, 1929 December 14th, 1961 January 31st, 1966 October 25th, 1968 December 12th, 1972 April 6th, 1998 For those of you are unacquainted with important dates in market history, those dates are within 1 to 6 weeks of some of the most important tops of the past century. We still need to see a few more requirements met in order to identify a Sign of the Bear pattern in the current time period. First of all, tomorrow must be a churning day, a day with the daily advance decline ratio above 0.65 but below 1.95. Second of all, the consecutive streak must not extend beyond Wednesday of next week, September 20th. If tomorrow is a churning day, we must then see a day with an advance decline ratio below 0.65 before Thursday, September 21st. Finally, either the two day average or the three day average of the advance decline ratio after the consecutive streak ends must be below 0.75. If that should occur, we would have a true Sign of the Bear. ======= Tues and Wed have extended the "churning" pattern to 22 days, so now we just need a couple of sharp down days in the next week and we have the legendary Sign. Gulp! For more background on this indicator: stockmarketcycles.com