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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (73281)	9/13/2000 10:06:24 AM
From: Terry D	Respond to of 95453

Fred from Bear stays with his bearish outlook. Has an obdurate ring of "that's my story and I'm sticking with it." Fred Leuffer – Major Oils Earnings Estimates Revised Q3 earnings for the major oils are expected to benefit from strong oil and natural gas prices. Quarter to date, the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has averaged $31.04/bbl ($28.35/bbl for WTI posted), up by more than $2.00/bbl from the Q2 average. Prices for North Sea and other foreign crudes have shown even greater strength. The Natural Gas Week composite spot price has averaged $4.22/mcf, an increase of $0.79/mcf from the second-quarter average. Prices for both oil and natural gas have exceeded our assumptions. Accordingly, we have revised our 2000 oil price forecast upward by 7.5% to $28.50/bbl for WTI spot ($26.30 for posted). This assumes a decline in prices from current levels of $34/bbl to $25/bbl by year-end. Our 2001 oil price forecast is unchanged at $20/bbl for WTI spot ($18/bbl posted). Our natural gas price forecast is under review by Ellen Hannan, Bear Stearns’ gas analyst. In aggregate, we have increased our estimates by 9% for 2000 The biggest changes are for Unocal, USX-Marathon, Kerr-McGee, Amerada Hess, and Texaco. Despite the boost to our earnings estimates, we are concerned about the impact of building oil supplies on future oil prices. Investment timing for the oils is poor, in our judgement. Mr. Leuffer has an interesting interpretation of the APIs.