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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (3072)	9/13/2000 11:01:41 AM
From: William Hunt	Respond to of 197039

Keith ---Did I not understand that "Q" is planning to have W-CDMA on silicon by February next year ---then to market by the end of 2001 ? If this is true then would it not make sense for SK to wait for the upgrade path from CDMA2000 to W-CDMA being provided by "Q" in 2003 or sooner ? BEST WISHES BILL

To: Keith Feral who wrote (3072)	9/13/2000 11:06:05 AM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 197039

MotleyFool.com - Fool Plate Special China Throws Qualcomm a Bone By Bill Mann OK, it's a big bone: a multibillion-dollar one, in fact. But wireless communications technology provider Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM - news) is going to need some Dramamine if its roller-coaster ride vis-a-vis China doesn't level off. Wu Jichuan, the Chinese Minister of Information Industry, committed number-two Chinese wireless operator China Unicom (NYSE: CHU - news) to the flavor of narrowband CDMA championed by Qualcomm, IS 95, as opposed to another competing protocol, W-CDMA, which is favored by Nokia (NYSE: NOK - news) and Ericsson (Nasdaq: ERICY - news). In February, China Unicom inked a deal with Qualcomm to deploy a wireless network, with significant construction coming this year. Then Unicom waffled, making bare mention of CDMA in its materials in advance of its June IPO, instead saying that it would concentrate on its existing GSM network, which had reached "critical mass." This has been a bruising course for Qualcomm. The company probably should have known better than to consider its February agreement with the Chinese a done deal, waiting instead for a sign of buildout before counting its chickens. Instead Qualcomm has been battered and bruised by a dance partner that has all of the grace of a camel with intestinal problems. By signaling a go-ahead, the Chinese government is lighting the way for Qualcomm's much-stronger intellectual property to gain exposure to China Unicom's 7 million existing customers -- plus the fastest-growing wireless market in the world. Still, grizzled Qualcomm shareholders, weary from poor turns from the Chinese, are probably right to treat this announcement with some skepticism, preferring to wait for some actual buildout to take place before they pop the champagne corks. It's noteworthy that the final arbiter as to what CDMA technology China Unicom would use was not the company itself, but the government. Minister Wu essentially mandated that Unicom deploy an IS 95 network, calling the previous media reports ruling out China Unicom's adoption of CDMA technology "confusing." Since the government is in fact running the show here, the possibility at least exists that these conflicting reports were made on purpose to pit Chinese trading partners in Europe and in the U.S. against one another for the eventual benefit of China. Political considerations are also unlikely to be far from the surface here. Qualcomm and another American powerhouse, Lucent (NYSE: LU - news), are largely behind the IS 95 protocol, and have huge financial stakes in adoption of this standard. As China is cognizant of the political power held by these companies in Washington, it is not unreasonable to surmise that the government believes that this move will improve bilateral relations. Regardless of the rationale(s), Qualcomm's once rapidly fading hopes of gaining a strong position in China in the near future were just resuscitated. For more things Foolish, go to the The Motley Fool's complete site! We aim to inform, educate and help you make good money, Fool. Also, check out the FoolMart, the place to shop for Foolish investing tools. Become a Fool for Motley Fool stock features, updates, contests, and product discounts!

To: Keith Feral who wrote (3072)	9/13/2000 11:19:37 AM
From: kech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197039

From Maxgo's post: SKT's recent announcement that it would delay 3G deployment until the fall of 2003 is in response to concerns that W-CDMA service will result in the import of most of the equipment, in detriment to the economy. It is expected that Samsung Electronics would be able to complete development of W-CDMA equipment by the fall of 2003. "Operators are allowed to decide when to start 3G service. In order to protect the domestic equipment market, we plan to commence 3G service after the fall of 2003 when Samsung Electronics will have completed W-CDMA equipment development," said Cho Min-lae, vice president of SKT IMT-200 business strategy team. "Prior to the IMT-2000 deployment, we will be providing services similar to IMT-2000 using IS-95C which will be available starting next month," he added. The argument here is that while IS-95C will initially support a speed of 144Kbps, the technology will continue to evolve, eventually reaching a speed of up to 2.4Mbps available through IS-95C. That should make the IS-95C service competitive with 3G, also known as the IMT-2000 service, whose average transmission speed is 384Kbps, according to SKT. The first couple of paragraphs indicate that they will wait until 2003 until W-CDMA is available for their 3G choice - which would be for their choice of IMT-2000 standard. The last paragraph indicates thougth that in the meantime they are still going ahead with IS-95C on their current spectrum. From reading it they seem to treat the IMT-2000 choice (which must be for new spectrum) differently than the current spectrum.

To: Keith Feral who wrote (3072)	9/13/2000 1:31:49 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 197039

Keith, << I don't see anything that suggests SKT is going to wait until 2003 to deploy 3G services. All the article is saying is that SKT is willing to deploy CDMA2000 right now and delay the launch of any "potential" WCDMA services until 2003, by which time Korean equipment companies may have WCDMA equipment. >> I totally agree with you on this. SKT will deploy IS-95C in existing spectrum and no doubt evolve right through the migration path of cdma2000. << The real key is that CDMA2000 has concluded the standardization process and has the equipment to back it up right now. WCDMA has not concluded the standardization process and has no equipment to back it up >> I maintain (once again <g>) that the opposite is true (as it relates to the standard, not the equipment). Most certainly CDMA2000 has NOT concluded the standardization process. Now for that matter, neither has UMTS. Both will evolve in phases. The short term timetables and priorities for both have been established. Qualcomm is delivering (or about to deliver) a chipset that I do not think is compliant to the IS-2000 standard as finally approved by the ITU last April. Shortly (?) they will deliver a chipset (MSM5105) that is. There is however, no standard yet from 3GPP2 that takes data transmission beyond 144 kbps. At issue here is the interpretation of what constitutes IMT-2000, or 3G, or 3G3 standards. Terms "3G" or "3G3" or "IMT-2000" are being used differently in North America, then they are in Korea. Regardless of whose right, implementation of services in the 2Ghz spectrum (which is what UMTS UTRA) is standardized to, determines how the Koreans (all 3 carriers) set implementation timetables, whether it be for UMTS UTRA ('R99 or 'R2000') or later phase cdma2000. The Korean carriers are not referring to IS-95C as a "3G", "3G3" or "IMT-2000" service. In my opinion, any Korean carrier that chooses UMTS UTRA (WCDMA) for the spectrum about to be licensed, is not significantly disadvantaged over one choosing cdma2000 for that spectrum (at least as it relates to implementation timetable) because they will no doubt be implementing the latest and greatest cdma2000 rev ahead of or concurrently with their buildout in new spectrum. Now, it is entirely possible that the same carrier may have chosen an inferior technology, and could be disadvantaged for that reason. I personally think, as I'm sure you do, that commercial implementation of WCDMA will be delayed, beyond tentative schedules we are now hearing. I also feel that when commercial launch of WCDMA occurs that there will be kinks that cdma2000 will not suffer. In the meantime, HDR (1xEV DO or 1xEVDV) is something akin to WCDMA, in that it is not an evolutionary product. This means there will no doubt be kinks, devices will be limited, and there will be a lag between standardization and commercial deployment, before we as Qualcomm investors, enjoy the benefits. Meantime Korean manufacturers have a leg up on the world in regard to supplying cdma2000 equipment as it evolves, and will lag the Europeans (who are designing to 'R99') in supplying UMTS UTRA gear, although we are hearing that 90% of the componentry will be common between both. << By the time that WCDMA is standardized >> The 131 specifications that comprise the released standardized UMTS UTRA 'R99' are publicly available at 3GPP. The IS-2000 standard as it currently exists is available as a single 8MB .pdf at 3GPP2. Respectfully, - Eric -