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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ex-INTCfan who wrote (39873)	9/13/2000 7:56:37 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Thanks, I don't really see how anyone can expect things to keep going up as they have in the past. Given the market cap of CSCO, high P/E, massive employee options, dilution from acquisition , and the slowing economy, I figure unless you are rich and don't need to make money in the markets for the next 5 years, you will have to trade in and out of big caps to make any real gains. I think the rising Oil prices, a telecom equipment slow down, the cyclical nature of semi's and the US trade imbalance combined with record debt levels and the foreign ownership of the debt. Will send the Nasdaq down to 2200-2500 by next summer at the latest. When the bloated big caps like IBM and GE come down to earth the DJI and S&P will lose 30%. That's what I see coming, one way or another. We could bounce around for years to get rid of the bubble or we can bounce down over 2 years and meet realistic valuations some where in the middle. At any rate, we will all have to learn to play the wall street game to make money. You can't just buy stocks for the "ramp up to earnings or splits" anymore. Entry and planned exit points will be crucial going forward. The days of just buy and hold are over. CSCO shareholders will soon have to deal with a public that looks at option or wage expenses....thinks about the huge prices paid for growth...thinks about the fact the outstanding shares now allows everyone on the planet to own some CSCO! That's a lot of paper! Going forward, that seems to be like a tough thing to live up to for a stock. INTC too! Good luck, Bambs P.S. With regard to INTC, how do you feel about the large portion of net income that comes as a result of "gains from investments"? Considering that 47% INTC's investments consist of a of a major stake in MU, do you think INTC could have net income suffer next quarter? MU has sold off and I don't imagine that INTC could have gotten out of much of there position. Mark to market gains could turn into a market to market loss. I worry about the number of stocks that have large portions of their net income resulting from "gains from investments". At the market pulls back or stops going up, those gains will disappear or turn in to loses that could lead to big caps stocks drifting down while their P/E's drift up. Bambs

To: Ex-INTCfan who wrote (39873)	9/13/2000 9:01:06 PM
From: Eric	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

September 13, 2000 Juniper Networks CEO Advises Don't Sell Cisco Stock By ANNE BRADY OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES (This item was originally published late Monday.) SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. (Dow Jones) -- The chief executive of Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR) said Tuesday that the market for Internet routers is growing so fast that he expects both his company, No. 2 in the market, and the leader, Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), to enjoy continued growth and success. "Cisco is the competition. I'll give you this stock advice: This is not one of the stocks I'm selling, personally," said Scott Kriens, speaking with potential investors at Dain Rauscher Wessels' Technology Conference 2000 at the Scottsdale Princess resort in Scottsdale, Ariz. "There's plenty of growth in the market for both companies. The market growth is faster than both companies' (growth). ... Cisco will certainly be an ally in making sure the contest stays between the two of us." Got a kick out of this today from Dow Jones newswire! Eric