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To: denni who wrote (53272)	9/13/2000 7:00:42 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 93625

Hi denni rash; Re DDR cost and availability. These are design win announcements, so no availability yet. The memory makers say DDR costs a couple percent over SDRAM, and they will price it at 15% over SDRAM pricing, but I don't believe them. I think they will charge more like 50% for as long as they can get away with, just like they do with RDRAM. They're in it to make money. Micron is making a big show out of selling DDR at 15% over SDRAM right now, but I don't think that the spot market is going to be anywhere like that until about a year from now. On the other hand, you have to remember that the spot market in DRAM never accurately reflects costs to the big guys. The case with RDRAM was similar, with Dell, for instance, getting RDRAM for well under spot from Samsung. Similarly, DDR will be picked up by the big guys for 15% over SDRAM on contract, but the spot market (and the market for mom and pop) will show high prices until calm down. Motherboard costs are supposed to be within 5% of SDRAM MB costs, but again, I believe that the pioneers in DDR will pay more like 50% extra for DDR motherboards. This is just business as usual. DDR should be reasonably cheap (maybe 10 or 15% over SDRAM) around mid 2001. I know this seems like forever for a lot of people, but to put it in perspective, RDRAM is still 100% over SDRAM at almost 1 year after first customer ship. DDR will start cheaper, and drop faster. -- Carl