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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (33080)	9/14/2000 12:20:44 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

<<The big concern relates to energy and its rise. The argument will continue to rage about whether it should or should not be excluded from the mix. As we have said before and as the recent debate with OPEC has highlighted, the rise in energy prices cannot be properly labeled inflation caused by market forces. Output was artificially restricted with the intent to raise prices. OPEC has agreed to increase supply but talked of the west and its taxes on energy being a problem with the cost. Then the President has talked of opening the strategic petroleum reserve, and that has had its impact on the debate as well. * What all of this shows is that it is not an economic or market force impacting the price of oil, just governments, i.e., non-market forces. The result may be higher prices, but the idea that the Fed will have to work against higher prices with rate hikes or that managing monetary policy by other means will result in lower energy prices is wrong. There is nothing wrong with the economy itself that needs fixing. As we pointed out last night, we have to deal with OPEC directly and not try to dictate energy prices by trying to speed up or slow down the economy. * Our plan. * Today we saw what looked to be the start of another upward leg for the Nasdaq, meaning a higher low if we are right. We were in there pitching as we saw the stocks we were watching start back up on good volume from support levels. If the move continues, we will continue to do the same thing tomorrow. As we noted Tuesday, the Nasdaq could find support quickly, and that is why we were approaching all of our existing and potentially new downside plays with care, ready to exit. We closed some covered call positions and put plays early today and were taking upside positions for the most part. * Tomorrow we will continue to do the same as we see stocks continue to move up on solid volume. Do not let your guard down for a minute. Remember the lesson of the climb out of the bear: we see moves up that start, hesitate, pullback slightly, then move up. Even then, we have not had any lasting breakouts. Thus, we keep our trailing stop losses in as positions move up. We take profits when price/volume action starts to reverse or the overall market weakens. In other words, when what made us want to get into the position starts playing out, we take profit to get out and look for the next opportunity. * These rallies have rewarded those who step in early. Doing so, however, puts you at risk of a false move; that is why we keep that protection in place. We saw a false move on Tuesday. Today the move looked for real. We are looking for more. * Nasdaq: July high: 4274.67 closing; 4289.06 intraday high. Resistance: Some at 3900 and the 50 day moving average at 3955.51. Support: 3850. 3795 to 3765. * S&P 500: All-time closing high: 1527.46 All-time high: 1552.87 Support: The thick ice was chipped hammered on today, but again it held. 1477 to 1485 are April, May and June tops. The 50 day moving average is at 1483.21. 1455 represents some up trendlines. The 200 day moving average is at 1445.06 * Dow: April closing high: 11,287.08 April intraday high: 11,425.45 Recent resistance at 11,315 to 13,120. Support: August closing top at 11,176.14 again held today on the close. Recent low of 11,103.01 held today intraday. Still working on a decent looking handle.>> from investment house daily *