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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (29773)	9/14/2000 10:39:11 AM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 42787

Good comments on ORCL vs. Dow stocks, Lee. We think a lot alike. I hate to confess to being a "value guy" on this thread, but I last put a significant amount of money in tech in January 98, when Nokia was trading at a PE of 18. The bargains were terrific compared to the growth rates, and I took some very nice profits earlier this year when it was clear that we were entering a blow-off top phase. It's funny that all this "new economy" thinking is only about two years old; it's essentially an after-the-fact theory to justify a bubble. The risk is that people are paying for earnings 2-5 years down the road on the assumption that there'll be someone else still buying the "new economy" valuation argument to sell the stock to. It's pretty risky to bet on returns years down the road on the assumption of continued acceptance of a new theory that rejects a century or more of actual market experience. But then again, maybe everyone who mouths "buy-and-hold" has one finger on the sell button... Apologies to all for the sermon...