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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8567)9/14/2000 11:38:24 AM
From: Ian@SI  Respond to of 10921
 
Zeev,

Thanks. I think I see a fundamental assumption where we differ.

For me to believe that a PSR of 1 is reasonable, I'd have to believe that the sector had reached an equilibrium state. i.e. - it may still have its peaks and valleys, but their highs and lows wouldn't differ by much more than the highs and lows in the economy at large.

I just can't see the case for that happening any time soon. Except for the last trough, there's been a steady progression of higher highs and higher lows for the sector.

As long as high tech remains the productivity growth engine, that trend will continue or strengthen. This global information revolution is longlasting and a key driver of growth in the sector.

Unless you can come up with a convincing argument for productivity to stop, I think I'll just have to keep putting my money where my mouth is. ;-)

Ian.