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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (8570)	9/14/2000 12:12:16 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

First, the three you mentioned are not as cyclical as the semi equip. You got to remember that if the semi's growth rate slows down from 20% to 10% annually, the semi equip people suddenly dive into negative growth (whatever that is). Second, I have not said that in a bear market those companies valuations will be sustained. The whole "metrics" will be ratcheted down, some more some less. I think that the semi equip sector's "metrics" will be ratcheted down more, if history is any guide. Zeev Zeev

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (8570)	9/14/2000 12:32:23 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Interesting discussion. Why is that high when EMC, MSFT, INTC, and CSCO trade at valuations much higher yet have LT growth rates similar to AMAT? One argument I have heard made is that multiples in different industries do not necessarily fall in the same range. None of the stocks you listed above is in the semiconductor equipment industry, which tends to have deeper cycles historically. That history may be what makes investors reluctant to pay the same multiples for semi equip stocks as for other types of tech stocks. If you believe the cycles should smooth out over time(as I do), I think these cos are not expensive by any metric you use. But not everyone believes that the cycles will smooth out, and probably won't believe it unless and/or until they see it actually happen. It is possible that you could be right, but there is still a risk that you might not be, and perceived risk is still a factor in determining any stock price.