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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8573)	9/14/2000 1:19:43 PM
From: quasar_1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Bull Fight... >I also believe that you are not factoring in the fact that even at the current "low" price, the NAZ and many sectors in general are at historic high valuations.< The overall level of the Nasdaq is very misleading. There are many highly priced stocks (CSCO for example) with gigantic market caps that skew the major averages. A quick look at the number of stocks below 10 week and 30 week averages and the advance decline line on both the DJI and the NAZ will quickly show you that we have been in a bear market since 1998 in MOST stocks. This 'nifty fifty' quality to the last two years had masked underlying weakness. There are many cheap individual stocks out there with low PE's and PEG ratios. Small Cap and Value managers have been pointing this out for years. Don't get caught in the index watchers trap of regurgitating the 'high valuation' spiel widely promulgated by many analysts. For a majority of stocks, it just isn't so. >I believe that such high valuations are not going to maintain themselves without constant infusion of liquidity in the markets.< The liquidity train has been the most impressive thing about the last ten years in the stock market. It shows no sign of slowing. Money is flowing into equity markets worldwide, but especially into the United States. And why not? A strong dollar, low interest rate, high productivity environment always attracts investment. Market Trim Tabs does not see a let up in the cash flow yet. We will have ample warning when this occurs. We are in a demographically driven equity boom which should not slack off until the later part of this decade when boomers start to draw funds out instead of put funds into their retirement portfolios. >"The closing of the "money window" for many of the dot.com companies, is in my opinion, an indication of the start of a shift in valuation psychology, and the market is nothing but a reflection of "mass psychology".< This was a good thing. Speculation was punished and the capital (what's left of it) is flowing into companies with good forward profit outlooks and sound business models. We had a 40% correction and many want more. We just went through one of the great speculative smashes in stock market history. I agree that the market reflects mass psychology. The sideways 'violently going nowhere' scenario we are now experiencing is the best of all worlds, a correction in time instead of price. >"Whomever the next administration is going to be, their first year in office will address some of the bubbliness of the market and take the "bitter medicine" as early as possible in their own cycle (so as to be positioned later in the cycle, during the next elections in a rising rather than declining market)."< History does support this post election swoon thesis. I disagree on the 'bubbliness comment'. The real effervescence here is in the fiber optic stocks which are currently being corrected. This type of self correcting market is the essence of a sustained bull move. The important thing to realize is that many of the conditions we now have are conducive to sustaining the already amazing bull market of the last decade. There will be nasty sell offs along the way and volatility may increase, but the long term demographics support this major bull phase continuing worldwide for at least another 5 years. We have a convergence of a major economic sea change (industrial to information based economy) along with very positive demographic patterns. I just don't see the secular bear market scenario yet. And believe me, as one who experienced some nasty bear markets in the past, I'm always looking over my shoulder... quasar