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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (8501)9/14/2000 2:28:41 PM
From: justone  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12823
 
Frank:

While starting to look at 3G traffic analysis I found this good high level article from
telecoms-mag called "Third Generation Mobile: From Perception to Fact"

telecoms-mag.com

It makes my point much better than I did.

Which, among other things, discusses SMS with the following paragraph:

"The rapid rise in the number of users accessing the Internet is well
documented; the growth of SMS, which has largely taken place over
the past 18 months in countries such as Germany, the UK, Italy,
Portugal, the Philippines and Hong Kong, less so. In Finland, the
increase in both the number of SMS users and the number of
messages per user, led to a 10-fold increase in SMS traffic in 1998.
Over the same period, four per cent of Sonera’s revenues came from
SMS messaging and nearly 10 per cent of its profits. "

also, it later notes that:

"SMS traffic can also be a substitute for voice services -- on Mannesmann’s
network, for example, 100,000 subscribers already spend more on SMS
messages than on voice calls. " While this is a small portion of Mannesmann's
millions of subscribers, but this is still amazing to note.

So I suppose wireless data to SMS may be like DSL was to T1 leased line access-
a new higher bandwidth service that may cannibalize an older more profitable service
and result in lower revenues. The difference being that the owners of a spectrum
are not quite the monopoly RBOCs were.