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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (8584)	9/14/2000 5:09:11 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

"AG is doing a reasonably good job of ensuring that the surplus is used to inject liquidity by buying back treasury bills and bonds." Actually, Larry Summers is doing that. The Treasury buy-back program is not under the control of the Fed.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (8584)	9/14/2000 6:13:57 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 10921

Ian, I listened, and it was not a particularly bullish scenario. As a matter of fact his target for MAT is not that far from mine (he has $105), and he agrees with me that NVLS will do better. But more important, it was no longer "full speed aged damn the torpedoes. Unlike commentators on this thread, banking on telecom to extend the cycle, he puts the onus on none other then the Dramurais, if they open their pockets, everything will be dandy. He also voiced concern that the Taiwanese foundries may over spend and any delay in their own orders will rapidly dry out that source of additional spending. I was surprised he did not correlate the spending on cap ex to total chip shipments. Currently the forecast for cap ex spending in 2000 is $55 MM (IS, and maybe a little outdated), at the same time the forecast for chip shipments in 2000 is just under $200 B. Thus this year already, cap ex approaches 27.5% of shipments. The industry does not generate enough cash flow to support that kind of cap-ex expenditure, for any length of time, IMHO. There is already a little fight brewing in Israel relative to INTC and TSEM expansions (the Government there is not exactly in the mood of dishing out a grant of a cool $1 B, about $600 MM to INTC and $350 to TSEM). Zeev